* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP972013 07/04/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 26 26 29 35 40 46 50 52 51 52 52 V (KT) LAND 25 26 26 26 29 35 40 46 50 52 51 52 52 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 26 26 29 32 36 39 41 44 45 46 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 23 25 20 16 13 11 12 14 14 7 7 10 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -1 0 -1 -1 0 6 0 -2 -1 2 -5 0 SHEAR DIR 68 81 79 82 71 98 76 79 67 48 42 43 43 SST (C) 29.1 29.3 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.3 28.8 28.5 28.1 27.6 26.9 26.2 POT. INT. (KT) 155 158 160 161 160 160 157 151 148 144 139 132 125 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.9 -53.6 -53.0 -53.1 -53.2 -52.9 -53.1 -52.8 -53.1 -53.0 -53.2 -52.9 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 7 8 7 8 8 8 7 7 6 5 3 700-500 MB RH 79 79 80 82 83 82 81 78 75 70 70 69 68 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 8 7 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 8 9 10 850 MB ENV VOR 30 17 2 0 2 0 13 7 23 8 11 6 14 200 MB DIV 72 62 61 71 67 65 76 63 47 17 34 36 38 700-850 TADV -1 -1 0 -2 -2 -1 -2 -1 -1 0 -6 -3 -3 LAND (KM) 399 359 320 291 268 249 259 258 283 303 383 476 461 LAT (DEG N) 12.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 97.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 10 9 8 8 7 6 6 7 8 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 14 18 19 23 25 24 21 19 13 6 1 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 576 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 43.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 8. 15. 23. 30. 33. 35. 36. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 9. 10. 12. 12. 12. 11. 10. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 1. 4. 10. 15. 21. 25. 27. 26. 27. 27. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP972013 INVEST 07/04/13 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.2 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.1 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 19.8 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 133.6 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 66.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 30.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 81.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)