* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST          *
                    * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE,       OHC AVAILABLE     *
                    *  PATRICIA    EP202015  10/23/15  00 UTC        *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
V (KT) NO LAND   140   155   161   158   144   103    77    62    51    44    36    30    28
V (KT) LAND      140   155   161   158   144    69    40    31    28    27    27    27    27
V (KT) LGE mod   140   148   145   134   120    61    37   DIS   DIS   DIS   DIS   DIS   DIS
Storm Type      TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A

SHEAR (KT)         4     1     4     7    18    31    38   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A
SHEAR ADJ (KT)    -3    -3     0     0     1     0     7   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A
SHEAR DIR        240   199   160   177   184   235   234   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A
SST (C)         30.4  30.5  30.5  30.5  30.4  30.5  29.8   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A
POT. INT. (KT)   169   169   170   171   170   173   165   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A
200 MB T (C)   -50.2 -50.4 -50.4 -50.1 -49.9 -50.7 -50.5   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A
TH_E DEV (C)      10    10     9     9    10     7     8   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A
700-500 MB RH     71    68    63    59    55    57    61   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A
MODEL VTX (KT)    23    25    26    22    17     5  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST
850 MB ENV VOR    59    62    72    73    87    98    71   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A
200 MB DIV       131   115   112   121    83    93   103   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A
700-850 TADV      -5     0    -2    -2    -7    10     2   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A
LAND (KM)        324   292   260   150    58  -154  -374   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A
LAT (DEG N)     15.8  16.5  17.1  18.2  19.2  22.0  24.5   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A
LONG(DEG W)    104.9 105.4 105.8 105.7 105.5 103.9 101.5   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A
STM SPEED (KT)     9     8     9    11    13    16    16   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A
HEAT CONTENT      59    59    67    68    66     0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0

  FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI      INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 10      CX,CY:  -6/  7
  T-12 MAX WIND:  90            PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB):  482  (MEAN=581)
  GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV.  50-200 KM RAD:   9.3 (MEAN=14.5)
  % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C    50-200 KM RAD:  99.0 (MEAN=65.0)

                        INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
                         6   12   18   24   36   48   60   72   84   96  108  120
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE     0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.
  SST POTENTIAL         -2.  -3.  -5.  -7. -13. -22. -30. -37. -45. -51. -55. -54.
  VERTICAL SHEAR MAG     0.   0.   0.  -3. -10. -16. -15. -13. -12. -13. -14. -15.
  VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ     0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
  VERTICAL SHEAR DIR     0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -2.
  PERSISTENCE           15.  21.  21.  17.   7.  -2.  -7.  -9.  -7.  -7.  -7.  -6.
  200/250 MB TEMP.      -1.  -1.  -3.  -4.  -7.  -9. -12. -14. -16. -17. -17. -18.
  THETA_E EXCESS         0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.
  700-500 MB RH          0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   2.   2.   2.
  MODEL VTX TENDENCY     0.   2.  -1.  -7. -23. -25. -25. -25. -25. -26. -25. -24.
  850 MB ENV VORTICITY   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   2.   3.   4.   5.   6.   7.   8.
  200 MB DIVERGENCE      1.   1.   2.   3.   4.   4.   3.   2.   1.   0.  -2.  -4.
  850-700 T ADVEC        0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
  ZONAL STORM MOTION     0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.
  STEERING LEVEL PRES    0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -2.
  DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.
  GOES PREDICTORS        0.   0.  -1.  -1.   0.   2.   4.   4.   6.   7.   7.   7.
  OCEAN HEAT CONTENT     0.   1.   2.   4.   4.   3.   2.   1.   1.   1.   0.   0.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  TOTAL CHANGE          15.  21.  18.   4. -37. -63. -78. -89. -96.-104.-110.-112.

   ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP202015 PATRICIA   10/23/15  00 UTC **
           ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
 
 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT):  50.0 Range:-22.0 to  38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val:  1.0/  2.2
 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) :   7.0 Range: 18.7 to   1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.7/  1.0
 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT)   :  29.8 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.0/  0.0
 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP :   9.3 Range: 38.9 to   2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.8/  0.8
 Heat content (KJ/cm2) :  63.8 Range:  3.6 to  75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.8/  0.7
 D200 (10**7s-1)       : 112.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.8/  0.6
 % area w/pixels <-30 C:  97.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.9/  0.5
 850-700 MB REL HUM (%):  67.6 Range: 57.6 to  96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.3/  0.0
 
 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold=     4% is   0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%)
 Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold=     3% is   0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%)
 Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold=     2% is   0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%)
 Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold=     1% is   0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%)

   ##         ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP202015 PATRICIA   10/23/15  00 UTC         ##
   ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4                          ##
   ## AHI=  0   (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##