* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OLAF EP192015 10/27/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 34 28 21 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 40 34 28 21 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 40 36 31 26 22 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 33 28 21 18 20 17 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 22 17 13 9 2 -3 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 285 307 307 289 282 288 291 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 24.9 24.7 24.4 24.5 24.6 25.1 25.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 112 109 104 104 107 114 118 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -49.9 -49.8 -49.7 -49.7 -50.0 -50.6 -51.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 2 2 3 3 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 37 33 28 23 21 22 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 15 13 12 10 8 7 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 37 35 14 -14 -40 -60 -75 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 1 -4 -4 -11 -12 -19 -24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 4 0 -5 -7 -5 -10 -12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1710 1629 1548 1565 1582 1762 1884 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 26.5 26.8 27.0 26.8 26.5 25.6 25.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 135.5 134.7 133.9 133.9 133.9 135.4 137.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 4 2 5 9 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 70/ 10 CX,CY: 9/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 683 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 3.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. -1. -5. -10. -15. -18. -20. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 9. 8. 7. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -11. -12. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -2. -5. -7. -11. -14. -15. -14. -14. -15. -14. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -12. -12. -11. -11. -10. -10. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -7. -11. -14. -16. -17. -18. -19. -18. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -6. -12. -19. -25. -34. -44. -53. -58. -64. -71. -77. -80. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP192015 OLAF 10/27/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 24.0 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 67.0 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 3.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -6.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 0.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 58.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP192015 OLAF 10/27/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##