* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SEVENTEEN EP172015 09/26/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 36 40 44 44 44 43 43 39 29 30 30 V (KT) LAND 30 33 36 40 44 44 44 43 43 39 29 30 30 V (KT) LGE mod 30 33 35 37 39 40 39 38 37 35 31 30 31 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 7 10 14 14 19 20 18 16 13 8 9 3 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -2 -1 1 3 3 1 4 -3 1 8 0 11 SHEAR DIR 333 294 274 284 280 271 268 263 253 251 196 215 294 SST (C) 29.8 29.9 30.0 30.0 30.1 30.3 30.3 30.3 30.3 30.3 30.3 30.2 30.1 POT. INT. (KT) 160 162 162 161 163 166 165 163 163 165 165 164 163 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.2 -51.6 -51.8 -51.4 -51.3 -51.1 -50.8 -50.9 -50.8 -50.9 -51.2 -51.3 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 8 7 7 8 8 9 9 9 10 9 9 700-500 MB RH 72 73 74 73 72 67 62 58 59 58 59 66 68 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 12 13 15 16 15 16 16 17 15 8 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -20 -15 -18 -20 -14 -11 2 7 9 16 11 -15 0 200 MB DIV 83 77 81 68 74 42 19 2 37 39 65 22 19 700-850 TADV -1 0 2 3 4 3 1 0 0 -1 -2 0 0 LAND (KM) 513 486 461 435 409 309 209 178 192 192 146 168 221 LAT (DEG N) 13.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 103.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 5 4 3 3 5 3 1 0 2 3 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 78 82 81 77 70 45 36 34 35 34 32 32 35 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 4 CX,CY: -1/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 662 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 15. 22. 28. 32. 34. 36. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -1. -1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -9. -11. -13. -15. -15. -15. -15. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -11. -13. -14. -15. -15. -15. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 6. 6. 7. 8. 9. 7. -4. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 14. 14. 14. 13. 13. 9. -1. 0. 0. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP172015 SEVENTEEN 09/26/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.5 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 131.8 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.4 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 77.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 76.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 69.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 46% is 3.5 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 32% is 3.7 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 24% is 4.0 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 18% is 4.1 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172015 SEVENTEEN 09/26/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##