* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP952015 08/22/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 22 26 29 38 45 52 57 60 61 61 63 V (KT) LAND 20 20 22 26 29 38 45 52 57 60 61 61 63 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 22 24 28 33 40 48 56 63 67 68 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 4 6 7 8 10 6 4 6 9 12 7 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 0 0 0 -3 -8 -5 -10 -7 -6 -3 -3 SHEAR DIR 52 26 16 43 54 35 84 101 160 140 176 209 238 SST (C) 29.3 29.3 29.2 29.1 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 28.9 28.6 28.2 27.9 27.8 POT. INT. (KT) 158 157 155 154 153 153 153 153 153 150 146 144 143 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.3 -52.3 -52.1 -52.2 -52.5 -52.5 -52.9 -52.8 -53.1 -52.7 -53.1 -52.6 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 8 9 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 8 9 700-500 MB RH 58 62 63 63 64 64 60 60 60 57 55 53 57 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 5 5 6 6 7 6 6 6 6 7 6 7 850 MB ENV VOR 22 24 28 33 45 54 54 46 53 57 62 70 74 200 MB DIV 19 25 36 45 53 46 25 16 51 49 59 31 9 700-850 TADV 0 1 1 1 2 0 -1 0 0 0 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 2017 2072 2129 2186 2244 2344 2416 2369 2211 2026 1822 1595 1347 LAT (DEG N) 12.5 12.6 12.6 12.6 12.6 12.7 13.0 13.4 13.8 14.1 14.4 14.8 15.5 LONG(DEG W) 126.4 127.2 127.9 128.6 129.3 130.7 132.0 133.5 134.9 136.6 138.5 140.6 142.8 STM SPEED (KT) 10 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 10 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 53 52 49 45 37 26 25 21 19 28 16 8 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 502 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 9.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 7. 15. 23. 30. 34. 37. 39. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 10. 9. 8. 6. 3. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -9. -9. -9. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -6. -10. -13. -14. -15. -16. -16. -15. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 2. 6. 9. 18. 25. 32. 37. 40. 41. 41. 43. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP952015 INVEST 08/22/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.8 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 135.6 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.5 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 47.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 35.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 6.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952015 INVEST 08/22/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##