* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP952015 08/22/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 21 23 26 31 37 44 50 53 53 52 51 V (KT) LAND 20 20 21 23 26 31 37 44 50 53 53 52 51 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 21 22 25 28 32 37 44 50 53 53 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 8 10 11 10 10 10 9 4 4 10 13 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 0 -1 0 1 0 -7 -6 -5 -6 -7 -2 -4 SHEAR DIR 342 351 352 3 18 15 27 52 112 165 202 248 281 SST (C) 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.2 29.1 29.0 29.0 29.0 28.9 28.7 28.3 27.9 27.7 POT. INT. (KT) 158 157 157 156 155 154 154 154 153 151 147 144 142 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.2 -52.2 -52.2 -52.1 -52.5 -52.3 -52.7 -52.5 -52.9 -52.8 -53.0 -52.5 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 55 58 61 62 64 66 65 62 61 60 59 57 58 MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 16 22 22 20 30 46 41 39 34 33 31 23 27 200 MB DIV 26 36 40 37 50 60 52 13 14 45 47 27 19 700-850 TADV -3 -3 -1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 2 3 6 LAND (KM) 1895 1959 2025 2089 2153 2287 2379 2451 2262 2084 1879 1642 1383 LAT (DEG N) 12.7 12.7 12.7 12.7 12.6 12.6 12.8 13.1 13.8 14.2 14.5 14.9 15.6 LONG(DEG W) 125.0 125.9 126.7 127.5 128.2 129.8 131.3 132.8 134.4 136.0 137.9 140.1 142.4 STM SPEED (KT) 10 8 8 7 7 8 7 8 8 9 10 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 42 47 52 51 47 32 25 25 20 25 26 8 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 522 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 15.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 1. 7. 15. 23. 30. 34. 37. 39. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 6. 5. 4. 1. -1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -6. -9. -12. -13. -14. -14. -15. -14. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 3. 6. 11. 17. 24. 30. 33. 33. 32. 31. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP952015 INVEST 08/22/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.8 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 136.5 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.6 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 47.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 37.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 6.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952015 INVEST 08/22/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##