* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932015 08/11/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 30 29 28 24 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 30 30 29 28 24 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 32 31 31 28 25 22 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 19 24 25 23 25 34 35 36 38 37 37 32 32 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -5 -5 -4 -6 -6 -4 -4 -5 -1 0 3 3 SHEAR DIR 335 332 332 323 315 320 310 309 308 297 295 293 289 SST (C) 28.0 28.0 27.9 27.9 27.8 27.6 27.2 26.8 26.4 26.2 26.2 26.4 26.4 POT. INT. (KT) 143 143 142 142 141 139 135 131 127 125 125 126 126 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.4 -52.5 -52.7 -52.8 -53.0 -53.1 -53.3 -53.4 -53.6 -53.8 -53.9 -53.7 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 7 7 7 7 6 7 6 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 49 46 47 45 44 45 44 46 47 50 53 55 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 5 5 5 5 4 3 3 3 3 3 2 3 850 MB ENV VOR -24 -25 -23 -22 -20 -18 -15 -5 -9 -23 -19 -29 -28 200 MB DIV -21 -35 -37 -26 -27 -17 -37 -30 -1 -18 -19 -11 8 700-850 TADV 0 -1 1 3 2 3 3 5 6 8 7 6 2 LAND (KM) 1880 1922 1967 2005 2044 2137 2206 2045 1872 1690 1510 1351 1203 LAT (DEG N) 16.3 16.5 16.7 16.9 17.1 17.5 17.9 18.2 18.6 18.9 19.2 19.5 19.8 LONG(DEG W) 128.4 129.2 129.9 130.5 131.2 132.6 133.9 135.4 137.0 138.7 140.4 141.9 143.3 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 15 19 20 17 15 11 7 3 4 0 1 1 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 638 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 21.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 12. 16. 19. 21. 22. 23. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 0. -3. -7. -13. -19. -24. -27. -29. -29. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -11. -11. -12. -12. -12. -12. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. -1. -2. -6. -13. -19. -25. -31. -35. -37. -34. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP932015 INVEST 08/11/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.4 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 112.1 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.5 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 17.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : -29.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 15.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932015 INVEST 08/11/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##