* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932015 08/08/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 23 23 24 26 27 27 26 25 24 23 23 V (KT) LAND 20 21 23 23 24 26 27 27 26 25 24 23 23 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 19 18 18 18 18 17 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 11 12 14 15 13 18 17 15 16 19 19 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 -3 -1 -1 -3 0 0 0 -2 -3 -3 -5 SHEAR DIR 348 353 339 348 353 3 359 356 346 328 322 310 314 SST (C) 28.4 28.2 28.1 27.9 27.8 27.6 27.6 27.6 27.5 27.3 27.2 27.0 26.7 POT. INT. (KT) 147 144 143 141 140 138 138 138 136 134 134 133 130 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.5 -52.6 -52.8 -52.6 -52.4 -52.4 -52.0 -52.4 -52.4 -52.6 -52.8 -53.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 7 7 7 6 700-500 MB RH 64 63 61 57 55 52 49 47 44 42 40 40 43 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 6 5 5 5 4 4 3 3 3 3 2 850 MB ENV VOR -55 -56 -58 -59 -59 -43 -39 -30 -35 -26 -26 -26 -25 200 MB DIV -22 -15 -13 -6 -2 -25 -22 -42 -61 -50 -23 -20 -14 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 -1 0 1 1 0 1 1 3 LAND (KM) 1599 1632 1667 1707 1745 1791 1857 1912 1964 2010 2089 2219 2027 LAT (DEG N) 15.5 15.7 15.8 16.0 16.1 16.4 16.7 17.0 17.3 17.6 17.7 17.8 18.0 LONG(DEG W) 124.0 124.6 125.1 125.7 126.3 127.3 128.5 129.5 130.4 131.2 132.2 133.8 135.6 STM SPEED (KT) 7 5 5 6 5 5 5 5 4 4 6 8 9 HEAT CONTENT 20 16 13 11 10 10 12 14 11 9 7 2 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 615 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 71.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 14. 20. 25. 29. 31. 33. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 0. -2. -3. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP932015 INVEST 08/08/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.1 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.3 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.7 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 14.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : -11.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 54.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932015 INVEST 08/08/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##