* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IGNACIO EP122015 09/03/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 66 66 66 65 70 69 65 56 47 41 30 18 V (KT) LAND 65 66 66 66 65 70 69 65 56 47 41 30 18 V (KT) LGE mod 65 67 68 67 67 67 63 55 47 38 30 22 16 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 6 12 17 13 17 16 20 14 14 10 25 40 57 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -5 -5 3 2 2 -4 -1 0 3 8 9 2 SHEAR DIR 235 313 323 293 273 157 170 188 211 237 253 237 242 SST (C) 26.9 26.7 26.5 26.1 25.7 24.7 24.2 23.5 22.1 19.1 15.7 13.8 13.3 POT. INT. (KT) 133 131 128 124 121 111 106 99 84 63 63 63 64 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.1 -52.4 -52.4 -52.4 -53.3 -53.0 -54.0 -54.4 -55.2 -54.9 -54.5 -54.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 3 1 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 47 49 50 53 56 54 50 50 48 51 53 49 41 MODEL VTX (KT) 29 29 29 29 29 33 34 33 31 28 28 26 27 850 MB ENV VOR 41 29 17 18 41 82 98 75 53 48 39 51 2 200 MB DIV -10 -18 22 35 39 73 54 9 22 13 52 24 11 700-850 TADV 21 12 10 4 11 9 17 13 27 15 35 22 -17 LAND (KM) 624 706 799 899 999 1266 1554 1845 1661 1364 1049 823 762 LAT (DEG N) 27.8 28.4 29.0 29.8 30.6 33.0 35.6 38.3 41.0 43.6 46.3 48.4 50.2 LONG(DEG W) 160.1 161.2 162.2 162.7 163.2 163.7 164.2 164.3 164.1 163.2 161.4 157.9 153.2 STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 10 9 11 13 14 13 13 14 15 17 17 HEAT CONTENT 3 1 9 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 12 CX,CY: -9/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 705 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 57.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -3. -7. -11. -16. -21. -25. -29. -35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 0. -1. -5. -8. -14. -22. -34. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 5. 8. 10. 12. 14. 17. 21. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -10. -12. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 6. 7. 6. 3. -1. 0. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 3. 6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 1. 0. 5. 4. 0. -9. -18. -24. -35. -47. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP122015 IGNACIO 09/03/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.1 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 62.6 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.5 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 3.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 13.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 32.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.0 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122015 IGNACIO 09/03/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##