* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IGNACIO EP122015 09/02/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 57 56 58 60 61 61 60 59 59 58 53 47 V (KT) LAND 60 57 56 58 60 61 61 60 59 59 58 53 47 V (KT) LGE mod 60 57 56 56 56 56 55 55 55 54 49 44 38 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 24 23 22 19 15 19 18 28 27 32 14 13 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 -2 -3 -2 -4 -2 -2 4 -4 0 0 4 SHEAR DIR 224 233 228 204 190 321 294 263 200 212 235 297 288 SST (C) 27.4 27.4 27.5 27.4 27.2 26.9 26.3 25.5 24.8 24.5 24.1 23.2 21.1 POT. INT. (KT) 138 138 140 139 136 133 126 118 111 107 104 95 73 200 MB T (C) -51.2 -51.3 -51.6 -52.1 -52.1 -52.2 -52.0 -52.2 -52.1 -53.2 -53.7 -54.5 -54.8 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 7 7 7 6 6 5 4 2 1 0 700-500 MB RH 49 49 49 48 47 46 52 58 55 55 53 47 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 27 27 27 29 30 29 30 30 33 37 38 34 32 850 MB ENV VOR 22 24 34 43 35 26 21 29 55 67 72 62 52 200 MB DIV 13 24 16 14 4 -2 22 29 59 45 5 -16 0 700-850 TADV 9 9 15 11 15 16 4 12 15 9 15 6 6 LAND (KM) 378 388 409 449 522 680 873 1079 1312 1521 1717 1956 1779 LAT (DEG N) 24.3 24.8 25.4 26.2 26.9 28.1 29.4 31.0 33.0 34.8 36.4 38.4 40.8 LONG(DEG W) 155.4 156.4 157.3 158.4 159.4 161.4 163.1 164.2 165.0 165.7 166.6 167.6 168.8 STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 11 12 11 11 9 10 10 9 10 12 13 HEAT CONTENT 11 11 15 9 4 2 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 10 CX,CY: -7/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 688 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 82.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 0. -2. -5. -7. -9. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -3. -7. -12. -20. -23. -24. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 12. 11. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 8. 14. 16. 11. 8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -4. -2. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -7. -13. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP122015 IGNACIO 09/02/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.6 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 78.2 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 10.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 73.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 8% is 0.6 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122015 IGNACIO 09/02/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##