* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IGNACIO EP122015 08/27/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 80 83 87 90 94 96 97 100 96 90 88 83 82 V (KT) LAND 80 83 87 90 94 96 97 100 96 90 88 83 82 V (KT) LGE mod 80 83 87 90 93 97 100 100 98 93 85 78 72 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 10 12 11 10 11 2 2 8 11 14 18 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 7 0 -1 -1 -2 -2 -4 -6 1 3 2 -1 SHEAR DIR 87 78 76 74 73 108 69 166 274 250 236 219 231 SST (C) 28.6 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.4 28.0 27.7 27.5 27.4 27.4 27.4 27.6 27.8 POT. INT. (KT) 151 150 150 150 148 143 140 138 137 137 137 139 141 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -51.3 -51.6 -51.9 -51.7 -51.4 -51.3 -51.2 -51.1 -50.9 -51.7 -51.4 -51.6 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 9 10 11 10 10 9 9 8 700-500 MB RH 64 67 67 67 65 63 59 55 56 58 62 60 61 MODEL VTX (KT) 22 22 23 23 25 26 25 28 29 27 29 28 30 850 MB ENV VOR 59 57 51 42 48 54 47 56 52 64 74 69 83 200 MB DIV 59 55 54 45 25 3 15 -4 -3 31 50 49 62 700-850 TADV -5 -4 -3 -3 -2 0 0 0 0 4 9 13 10 LAND (KM) 1722 1603 1484 1365 1246 1071 912 744 562 405 280 137 66 LAT (DEG N) 12.7 13.2 13.6 14.1 14.5 15.3 16.0 16.7 17.5 18.2 18.9 19.7 20.5 LONG(DEG W) 140.3 141.3 142.3 143.3 144.3 145.7 147.0 148.4 149.9 151.2 152.2 153.5 154.9 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 11 9 8 7 8 7 7 7 7 8 HEAT CONTENT 11 11 15 22 27 24 26 30 36 31 34 42 28 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 511 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 3.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. -2. -5. -8. -11. -13. -15. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 1. 4. 5. 6. 6. 4. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 8. 7. 5. 4. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 4. 5. 6. 9. 10. 9. 12. 10. 12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 10. 14. 16. 17. 20. 16. 10. 8. 3. 2. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP122015 IGNACIO 08/27/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.1 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 69.7 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 3.2 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 17.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 47.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 100.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 29% is 2.2 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 24% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 17% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 14% is 3.1 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122015 IGNACIO 08/27/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##