* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IGNACIO EP122015 08/26/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 49 52 56 61 66 71 76 80 84 84 85 84 V (KT) LAND 45 49 52 56 61 66 71 76 80 84 84 85 84 V (KT) LGE mod 45 49 53 58 62 68 74 78 81 84 84 84 81 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 9 8 10 10 9 12 9 10 9 11 10 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -4 -4 -4 -2 -2 -3 -3 -3 -8 0 -2 0 SHEAR DIR 147 145 114 97 107 104 121 107 102 114 173 189 208 SST (C) 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.3 28.2 28.1 27.8 27.5 27.4 27.4 POT. INT. (KT) 151 151 150 149 149 149 147 146 145 142 139 138 138 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.8 -52.6 -52.0 -52.2 -52.2 -51.9 -52.2 -51.9 -52.2 -51.6 -51.8 -51.4 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 8 9 9 8 8 8 9 9 9 8 9 700-500 MB RH 60 59 60 63 64 66 70 70 69 64 62 61 63 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 14 14 15 15 16 17 19 20 20 22 22 850 MB ENV VOR 65 67 67 66 62 53 55 63 72 63 58 41 49 200 MB DIV 87 72 58 60 68 51 55 31 39 -3 1 -9 6 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -1 -2 -2 -2 -1 0 2 0 2 1 6 LAND (KM) 2382 2302 2222 2128 2034 1824 1610 1420 1241 1028 803 601 409 LAT (DEG N) 12.3 12.3 12.3 12.4 12.5 13.2 14.0 14.7 15.2 16.0 16.9 17.5 17.9 LONG(DEG W) 133.8 134.6 135.4 136.3 137.2 139.0 140.8 142.4 144.0 145.8 147.7 149.5 151.3 STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 8 9 9 9 9 8 9 10 9 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 29 23 22 25 27 14 12 16 22 22 23 35 30 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):255/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 574 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 8. 11. 14. 16. 17. 17. 17. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 7. 5. 4. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -11. -11. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 11. 11. 13. 14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 11. 16. 21. 26. 31. 35. 39. 39. 40. 39. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP122015 IGNACIO 08/26/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.1 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.0 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.5 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 25.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 69.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 70.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 30% is 2.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 25% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 18% is 3.1 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 13% is 3.0 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122015 IGNACIO 08/26/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##