* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902015 07/27/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 31 32 35 38 39 38 34 29 26 25 27 V (KT) LAND 30 30 31 32 35 38 39 38 34 29 26 25 27 V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 30 31 31 32 32 32 29 27 24 21 21 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 19 17 13 15 16 13 19 16 21 20 20 17 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 -2 -4 -4 -1 0 0 1 1 3 -2 -4 SHEAR DIR 325 339 340 333 341 329 341 340 327 316 314 286 276 SST (C) 28.2 28.0 28.1 28.2 28.1 27.6 26.9 26.4 26.3 26.4 26.5 26.8 27.0 POT. INT. (KT) 148 146 146 147 146 141 133 128 127 130 131 132 133 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.5 -52.5 -52.7 -52.7 -52.7 -53.0 -52.9 -53.2 -53.2 -53.3 -53.1 -53.3 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 8 8 8 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 700-500 MB RH 65 66 64 64 61 58 54 52 48 46 42 40 42 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 7 8 8 8 9 8 7 6 5 4 2 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -23 -21 -13 -10 -6 6 6 -1 -15 0 3 23 25 200 MB DIV -9 -7 -6 0 3 -5 0 -2 -21 -47 -50 -45 -8 700-850 TADV -3 -3 -2 -2 -2 0 0 3 6 2 7 1 8 LAND (KM) 1697 1790 1866 1938 2015 2191 2035 1811 1576 1280 889 615 416 LAT (DEG N) 15.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 125.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 15 14 13 12 12 12 11 10 12 15 15 11 9 HEAT CONTENT 17 12 13 18 21 16 6 4 1 4 6 15 15 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 15 CX,CY: -13/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 657 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 28.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 45.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 13. 17. 20. 22. 23. 24. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -7. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -6. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 0. -2. -4. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 5. 8. 9. 8. 4. -1. -4. -5. -3. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902015 INVEST 07/27/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.0 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.7 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 28.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 16.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : -3.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 42.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.1 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 10% is 1.2 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 6% is 1.0 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902015 INVEST 07/27/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##