* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP992012 09/01/12 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 37 41 45 52 56 56 51 43 37 33 29 V (KT) LAND 30 33 37 41 45 52 56 56 51 43 37 33 29 V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 33 34 37 41 44 46 43 37 31 27 23 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 10 7 8 7 4 6 6 10 17 13 15 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 -1 0 -3 -1 -1 0 1 -1 -2 -1 -2 N/A SHEAR DIR 10 28 13 320 356 307 243 200 211 197 196 164 N/A SST (C) 29.2 28.9 28.6 28.5 28.4 27.9 26.4 24.0 22.1 21.4 21.5 21.4 21.7 POT. INT. (KT) 160 156 153 152 151 146 130 104 84 76 77 75 77 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -51.7 -52.0 -52.3 -51.7 -51.3 -51.1 -50.9 -51.0 -50.7 -51.1 -51.5 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 10 8 7 8 6 3 0 0 0 0 0 N/A 700-500 MB RH 81 81 80 79 81 77 72 69 61 55 50 50 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 72 84 76 59 47 50 52 80 82 95 98 110 N/A 200 MB DIV 92 82 65 67 63 77 55 55 33 18 -5 5 N/A 700-850 TADV 8 -7 -7 0 -11 -15 -1 5 5 5 5 5 N/A LAND (KM) 137 116 142 183 274 278 426 621 814 1028 1259 1440 1594 LAT (DEG N) 16.4 17.2 17.9 18.7 19.4 20.7 21.6 22.2 22.5 22.4 22.1 21.7 21.2 LONG(DEG W) 101.9 103.5 105.0 106.6 108.1 111.3 114.6 117.7 120.6 123.3 125.8 127.6 129.0 STM SPEED (KT) 20 17 17 16 16 16 15 14 13 12 10 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 49 46 43 38 16 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 24 CX,CY: -22/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 311 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 77.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 14. 18. 18. 16. 15. 12. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 8. 7. 5. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -11. -13. -14. -14. -14. -13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -3. -6. -8. -10. -12. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 10. 10. 9. 9. 10. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 15. 22. 26. 26. 21. 13. 7. 3. -1. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP992012 INVEST 09/01/12 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.4 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.1 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 38.4 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.4 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 73.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 69.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 34% is 2.9 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 25% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 18% is 3.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 10% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 3.9%)