* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP972013 08/29/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 33 36 40 46 49 50 50 52 47 45 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 33 36 40 46 49 50 50 52 47 45 V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 28 29 30 31 33 35 37 39 40 39 37 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 12 16 14 13 14 12 10 3 8 2 1 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 1 1 1 0 -2 -1 1 4 6 10 8 5 SHEAR DIR 45 50 51 74 85 80 97 72 73 37 104 344 266 SST (C) 27.6 27.6 27.5 27.4 27.4 27.4 27.3 27.2 27.0 26.7 26.3 25.8 25.4 POT. INT. (KT) 137 138 137 136 137 137 136 134 131 128 124 118 114 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.5 -53.5 -52.8 -52.9 -53.1 -52.6 -52.9 -52.4 -52.9 -53.1 -53.3 -52.9 TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 5 4 5 700-500 MB RH 56 57 57 57 55 50 45 40 37 37 38 39 39 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 11 13 14 15 14 15 14 13 11 11 9 8 850 MB ENV VOR 49 53 56 60 68 67 92 97 102 85 75 54 56 200 MB DIV 84 74 39 46 43 16 33 21 30 34 50 28 37 700-850 TADV 4 3 1 0 0 0 0 2 2 8 6 7 5 LAND (KM) 2356 2362 2369 2396 2374 2217 2056 1919 1810 1725 1665 1624 1608 LAT (DEG N) 13.0 13.3 13.6 13.9 14.1 14.5 14.7 14.8 15.0 15.4 16.0 16.7 17.4 LONG(DEG W) 131.2 131.6 132.0 132.6 133.2 134.6 136.1 137.4 138.4 139.1 139.5 139.7 139.7 STM SPEED (KT) 3 5 6 6 7 7 7 5 5 3 4 4 3 HEAT CONTENT 5 7 10 12 11 6 6 6 6 5 3 1 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 2 CX,CY: 0/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 669 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 60.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 13. 17. 21. 24. 25. 26. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 12. 12. 12. 11. 8. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 6. 4. 2. 2. -1. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 11. 15. 21. 24. 25. 25. 27. 22. 20. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP972013 INVEST 08/29/13 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.0 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 112.0 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.6 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 9.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 57.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 47.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 23% is 1.8 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 19% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 13% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972013 INVEST 08/29/13 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##