* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP972013 07/02/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 25 29 33 41 51 60 65 69 71 71 68 V (KT) LAND 20 22 25 29 33 41 51 60 65 69 71 71 68 V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 21 22 23 26 29 33 38 44 50 54 56 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 10 17 16 16 19 17 13 8 9 13 14 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 4 1 2 1 0 -3 -3 0 1 -3 0 1 SHEAR DIR 106 82 74 78 71 63 78 81 102 110 109 94 104 SST (C) 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.3 29.5 29.6 29.5 29.2 28.6 28.0 27.0 POT. INT. (KT) 153 155 155 155 155 157 159 160 159 156 150 144 133 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.6 -53.3 -53.3 -53.5 -53.1 -53.6 -52.9 -53.3 -52.3 -53.0 -52.2 -52.8 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 8 7 6 7 6 9 8 10 8 10 6 700-500 MB RH 71 69 70 73 73 73 77 81 81 81 77 72 68 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 7 8 8 9 9 9 8 8 9 10 10 9 850 MB ENV VOR 20 14 27 35 24 27 18 3 4 23 41 55 41 200 MB DIV 32 52 60 58 44 48 57 74 64 108 52 58 19 700-850 TADV 3 2 1 1 1 0 -2 -3 -1 -3 -2 -5 -2 LAND (KM) 262 326 368 361 373 357 312 260 216 161 168 214 337 LAT (DEG N) 12.7 12.6 12.5 12.5 12.4 12.8 13.6 14.6 15.6 16.6 17.4 18.0 18.6 LONG(DEG W) 93.8 94.6 95.3 96.1 96.9 98.4 99.6 100.7 102.0 103.2 104.7 106.4 108.3 STM SPEED (KT) 5 7 7 8 8 7 7 8 8 8 8 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 34 21 11 10 16 21 24 24 21 21 15 9 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):165/ 4 CX,CY: 1/ -3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 722 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 1. 7. 15. 24. 31. 36. 38. 41. 43. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 11. 13. 14. 14. 14. 12. 11. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 5. 5. 6. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 13. 21. 31. 40. 45. 49. 51. 51. 48. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP972013 INVEST 07/02/13 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.7 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 134.5 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.4 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 18.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 49.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 80.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 31% is 2.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 21% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972013 INVEST 07/02/13 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##