* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP962014 08/01/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 21 23 25 28 32 34 36 35 35 35 40 V (KT) LAND 20 20 21 23 25 28 32 34 36 35 35 35 40 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 20 20 20 21 23 25 27 29 30 30 32 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 17 15 13 10 8 5 3 2 7 4 4 1 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -1 -1 0 0 -1 -2 -2 -3 0 0 -3 SHEAR DIR 80 83 81 88 95 107 94 143 157 178 249 154 79 SST (C) 27.7 27.8 27.9 27.8 27.6 26.8 26.8 27.0 27.0 26.9 27.1 27.2 27.4 POT. INT. (KT) 141 143 144 143 141 133 133 135 135 134 136 137 138 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -52.9 -52.9 -53.0 -53.1 -52.7 -52.7 -52.4 -52.7 -52.6 -53.0 -52.7 -52.9 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 6 7 6 7 7 700-500 MB RH 66 64 63 61 59 53 48 44 43 41 41 41 38 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 10 10 11 10 11 10 9 8 8 8 8 9 850 MB ENV VOR 27 26 26 26 26 39 43 41 37 38 42 49 51 200 MB DIV 26 20 18 14 12 15 0 3 8 -1 42 25 18 700-850 TADV 1 -1 -3 -1 0 -2 -1 -1 1 0 -1 -3 -2 LAND (KM) 1970 1857 1745 1620 1496 1233 976 723 504 417 498 668 801 LAT (DEG N) 12.0 12.1 12.1 12.3 12.4 12.9 13.4 14.1 14.7 15.2 15.5 15.7 15.6 LONG(DEG W) 138.1 139.3 140.4 141.7 142.9 145.5 148.2 151.0 153.8 156.3 158.7 161.1 163.4 STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 12 12 12 13 13 14 13 12 12 12 11 HEAT CONTENT 12 11 12 17 20 12 9 6 3 10 17 11 11 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 713 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 1.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 14. 20. 24. 28. 30. 32. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 9. 10. 9. 8. 6. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -6. -11. -14. -15. -16. -18. -19. -18. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 3. 5. 8. 12. 14. 16. 15. 15. 15. 20. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP962014 INVEST 08/01/14 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.7 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.4 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.3 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 14.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 18.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 0.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962014 INVEST 08/01/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##