* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922013 08/11/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 29 31 37 42 45 46 43 39 36 35 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 29 31 37 42 45 46 43 39 36 35 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 26 27 30 34 38 41 41 40 38 35 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 26 21 16 11 7 5 3 3 6 9 11 15 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 0 -3 -3 -5 -5 -2 -7 -3 -2 -4 -3 SHEAR DIR 36 40 54 53 61 20 352 232 215 238 252 285 286 SST (C) 28.4 28.4 28.3 28.2 28.1 28.0 27.7 27.1 27.2 26.2 25.2 25.2 25.0 POT. INT. (KT) 148 148 147 146 145 145 142 136 137 127 117 117 114 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.6 -53.9 -53.9 -53.7 -54.0 -53.8 -54.0 -53.7 -54.1 -53.8 -53.7 -53.9 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 5 6 5 5 4 4 4 4 3 4 700-500 MB RH 68 66 65 63 63 62 61 60 58 56 53 52 46 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 10 10 11 10 9 8 8 8 6 6 5 5 850 MB ENV VOR -3 -3 -3 -3 -5 -4 1 4 -1 -3 -16 -13 -25 200 MB DIV 31 24 20 19 33 21 16 9 45 23 -9 -4 -2 700-850 TADV -5 -4 0 0 -2 -2 0 5 0 1 6 4 2 LAND (KM) 1628 1682 1725 1775 1828 1963 2106 2221 2266 1975 1662 1355 1052 LAT (DEG N) 12.2 12.4 12.5 12.7 12.8 13.2 13.9 14.7 15.6 16.4 17.3 18.1 18.8 LONG(DEG W) 120.5 121.4 122.3 123.3 124.2 126.4 128.8 131.2 133.8 136.4 139.2 142.0 144.8 STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 9 9 10 12 12 13 13 14 14 14 14 HEAT CONTENT 11 11 13 13 9 18 6 3 4 5 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 677 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 54.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 14. 20. 24. 27. 28. 28. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 6. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 6. 5. 2. 0. -1. -2. -3. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -2. -3. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 6. 12. 17. 20. 21. 18. 14. 11. 10. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922013 INVEST 08/11/13 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.4 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.8 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.8 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 11.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 25.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 43.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 8% is 1.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922013 INVEST 08/11/13 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##