* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902014 05/06/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 35 38 37 30 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 35 38 37 29 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 28 30 31 27 27 27 21 DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 3 5 7 12 17 24 31 36 50 68 69 79 69 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -6 -6 -2 2 5 4 8 4 -3 -7 -16 -9 SHEAR DIR 70 99 141 171 196 190 197 220 244 268 276 282 284 SST (C) 30.0 29.8 29.7 29.7 29.5 29.0 27.7 25.3 23.6 23.7 23.9 23.5 23.2 POT. INT. (KT) 163 163 162 163 161 156 143 117 100 100 101 95 91 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.1 -52.7 -53.0 -52.2 -51.9 -51.8 -51.7 -52.0 -52.5 -53.6 -53.9 -54.5 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 8 9 9 11 10 11 9 12 700-500 MB RH 83 82 80 77 69 58 47 44 50 54 50 45 43 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 14 14 15 16 12 7 5 3 2 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 30 34 37 39 37 58 51 59 28 8 -11 -59 -52 200 MB DIV 164 162 138 136 137 143 82 20 37 12 2 0 -9 700-850 TADV -2 -2 0 -1 5 -3 -4 9 3 15 1 13 -1 LAND (KM) 899 804 711 573 437 127 -168 -197 0 224 412 353 284 LAT (DEG N) 11.0 12.0 12.9 14.1 15.2 17.4 19.5 21.3 23.1 24.7 25.5 26.1 26.7 LONG(DEG W) 107.0 107.0 106.9 106.4 105.9 104.1 101.8 99.6 97.8 95.3 93.1 92.0 91.8 STM SPEED (KT) 5 10 11 12 13 15 14 13 13 12 8 4 3 HEAT CONTENT 66 67 54 52 41 20 14 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 0 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 513 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 61.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 1. 7. 15. 22. 25. 26. 26. 25. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 1. -3. -10. -22. -32. -42. -50. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -7. -5. -3. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. 3. -1. -7. -12. -14. -14. -16. -15. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 5. 4. 2. 1. -1. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 13. 12. 5. -3. -13. -25. -35. -43. -49. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902014 INVEST 05/06/14 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.0 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 137.4 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.8 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 56.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 147.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.7 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 49.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 43% is 3.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 32% is 3.7 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 22% is 3.7 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902014 INVEST 05/06/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##