* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902013 09/12/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 36 40 48 55 60 62 63 64 65 67 V (KT) LAND 25 28 32 36 40 48 36 30 28 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 28 30 35 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 19 16 11 10 6 6 10 12 8 9 8 11 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -3 -4 -4 -4 -1 0 -3 -4 0 -2 1 -2 SHEAR DIR 65 82 63 79 105 159 120 152 144 111 88 46 50 SST (C) 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.6 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.4 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 156 157 157 157 157 158 157 157 156 156 156 156 156 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -52.7 -52.0 -52.3 -52.6 -51.4 -52.0 -51.1 -51.4 -50.3 -51.0 -49.8 -50.8 TH_E DEV (C) 5 7 8 7 6 9 6 8 5 9 6 9 8 700-500 MB RH 88 86 85 83 82 82 79 82 83 83 84 85 87 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 91 83 79 82 91 106 105 125 123 131 152 155 149 200 MB DIV 111 102 94 87 87 100 102 125 105 141 96 115 87 700-850 TADV -2 1 0 0 1 3 4 2 1 4 2 7 5 LAND (KM) 215 176 138 108 78 17 -48 -139 -175 -220 -244 -223 -206 LAT (DEG N) 13.9 14.3 14.7 15.0 15.3 16.0 16.7 17.6 18.0 18.4 18.9 19.6 20.5 LONG(DEG W) 97.2 97.5 97.8 98.0 98.1 98.4 98.5 98.5 98.6 98.5 98.6 98.8 99.2 STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 4 3 4 4 4 3 2 2 3 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 24 28 33 35 36 27 53 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 481 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 7. 15. 23. 29. 33. 35. 38. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 5. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -2. -5. -7. -10. -12. -14. -15. -16. -16. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 8. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 11. 13. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -1. -3. -5. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 15. 23. 30. 35. 37. 38. 39. 40. 42. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902013 INVEST 09/12/13 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.5 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 131.7 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.7 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 31.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 96.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 84.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 82.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 43% is 3.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 27% is 3.1 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 19% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 13% is 3.0 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902013 INVEST 09/12/13 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##