* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902013 09/12/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 32 36 40 50 57 63 66 65 66 67 69 V (KT) LAND 25 29 32 36 40 50 41 32 28 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 29 31 33 38 34 29 27 27 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 21 21 18 15 12 5 8 11 10 13 9 11 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 0 0 -4 -5 -3 -2 -5 -3 0 0 -3 0 SHEAR DIR 37 40 45 62 76 78 108 88 105 126 99 95 110 SST (C) 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.3 POT. INT. (KT) 154 156 156 157 157 157 157 157 157 157 158 157 156 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -53.2 -52.5 -51.8 -52.2 -52.0 -51.7 -51.2 -51.2 -50.5 -50.6 -50.2 -50.7 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 7 9 7 8 6 7 6 8 8 9 9 700-500 MB RH 88 87 84 84 84 83 83 81 83 83 84 88 87 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 7 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 94 99 93 95 98 99 120 125 136 127 128 128 134 200 MB DIV 121 120 124 119 112 118 114 126 116 159 128 120 54 700-850 TADV -6 -5 -4 1 2 2 4 2 3 4 2 1 1 LAND (KM) 246 208 171 135 100 36 -38 -105 -162 -182 -199 -172 -190 LAT (DEG N) 13.5 13.9 14.3 14.7 15.0 15.6 16.3 17.0 17.7 18.2 18.8 19.3 19.8 LONG(DEG W) 96.5 96.9 97.2 97.4 97.5 97.6 97.7 97.9 98.2 98.9 99.9 101.1 102.4 STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 5 4 3 4 4 4 4 5 6 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 21 24 28 32 34 30 52 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 5 CX,CY: -3/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 545 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 7. 15. 23. 29. 33. 36. 38. 41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 7. 6. 6. 5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -13. -15. -16. -17. -17. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 8. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 9. 11. 13. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 1. -1. -4. -6. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 11. 15. 25. 32. 38. 41. 40. 41. 42. 44. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902013 INVEST 09/12/13 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.5 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 131.1 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.2 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 27.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 119.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.7 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 73.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 82.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 33% is 2.5 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 24% is 2.7 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 17% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 11% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902013 INVEST 09/12/13 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##