* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902013 09/12/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 33 38 43 53 61 67 69 68 69 70 71 V (KT) LAND 25 29 33 38 43 53 61 67 55 41 34 30 28 V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 29 31 33 39 46 55 52 39 33 29 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 20 18 17 13 6 5 9 16 11 8 10 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 1 -1 -3 -3 -2 0 -3 1 0 4 0 2 SHEAR DIR 29 28 52 64 59 89 119 121 135 136 133 73 65 SST (C) 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.6 POT. INT. (KT) 155 156 156 157 157 157 158 158 158 157 157 157 157 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.5 -53.0 -52.5 -51.8 -52.7 -51.6 -52.0 -50.9 -51.5 -50.5 -50.9 -50.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 5 7 8 5 9 6 9 6 10 7 11 700-500 MB RH 87 88 86 85 85 84 83 81 83 81 82 82 84 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 85 97 91 91 97 101 102 101 119 117 129 123 142 200 MB DIV 104 109 120 116 130 90 97 70 94 129 156 103 113 700-850 TADV -3 -6 -4 -4 0 1 0 2 5 4 5 5 4 LAND (KM) 266 238 215 177 140 92 53 25 -9 -21 -39 -38 -31 LAT (DEG N) 13.3 13.6 13.9 14.3 14.7 15.3 15.9 16.4 17.0 17.3 17.6 17.8 18.0 LONG(DEG W) 96.1 96.7 97.2 97.6 97.9 98.5 99.0 99.5 100.1 100.5 100.8 101.1 101.5 STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 6 5 5 4 4 3 3 2 2 2 2 HEAT CONTENT 19 22 26 31 37 44 42 32 3 44 48 50 48 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 579 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 7. 15. 23. 29. 33. 36. 38. 41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 6. 6. 5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -12. -13. -14. -15. -15. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 8. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 10. 12. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. -1. -3. -6. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 13. 18. 28. 36. 42. 44. 43. 44. 45. 46. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902013 INVEST 09/12/13 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.1 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 131.2 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 27.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 115.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.6 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 99.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 82.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 55% is 4.2 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 28% is 3.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 21% is 3.5 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 15% is 3.5 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902013 INVEST 09/12/13 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##