* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902013 08/03/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 30 33 41 44 48 48 44 39 34 30 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 30 33 41 44 48 48 44 39 34 30 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 26 27 29 31 32 31 29 26 22 18 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 5 5 6 3 3 5 10 18 23 28 36 40 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -2 1 2 0 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 338 324 303 349 1 224 252 251 254 247 249 243 244 SST (C) 28.7 28.6 28.5 28.4 28.2 27.8 27.2 26.7 26.3 25.0 24.3 24.2 23.7 POT. INT. (KT) 151 150 149 148 146 142 136 131 127 113 106 105 99 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.1 -52.6 -53.0 -53.2 -52.6 -53.1 -52.6 -52.8 -52.2 -52.6 -52.4 -52.7 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 4 5 4 4 3 3 2 2 2 1 700-500 MB RH 71 72 72 72 71 69 70 72 69 63 60 57 52 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 8 9 10 11 11 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 850 MB ENV VOR -25 -12 9 20 27 56 50 49 39 28 16 1 -3 200 MB DIV 26 33 64 66 45 86 95 92 78 77 54 29 15 700-850 TADV -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -3 -4 -2 2 4 6 10 11 LAND (KM) 1656 1701 1750 1796 1846 1948 2037 2114 2187 2129 1939 1737 1583 LAT (DEG N) 13.2 13.3 13.4 13.6 13.8 14.3 15.0 15.9 17.0 18.2 19.3 20.7 22.0 LONG(DEG W) 122.2 123.0 123.8 124.7 125.5 127.2 129.1 131.0 132.8 134.6 136.3 138.2 139.8 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 8 9 9 10 10 10 10 10 11 10 HEAT CONTENT 12 11 8 8 12 8 4 3 11 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 703 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 67.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 14. 19. 23. 25. 25. 25. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 8. 9. 8. 6. 3. -1. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -5. -8. -10. -11. -11. -11. -10. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 7. 8. 10. 11. 12. 12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 5. 8. 16. 19. 23. 23. 19. 14. 9. 5. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902013 INVEST 08/03/13 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.8 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.6 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.7 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 10.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 46.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 60.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 29% is 2.2 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 22% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 15% is 2.4 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902013 INVEST 08/03/13 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##