* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902013 08/02/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 24 25 26 30 34 38 38 36 33 28 24 V (KT) LAND 25 24 24 25 26 30 34 38 38 36 33 28 24 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 24 23 20 16 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 16 11 10 10 13 17 14 15 13 25 28 33 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 0 0 0 0 0 -1 0 2 3 7 1 SHEAR DIR 319 328 338 322 304 302 337 307 294 251 249 234 243 SST (C) 28.7 28.8 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.4 28.0 27.4 26.8 26.6 25.3 24.5 24.5 POT. INT. (KT) 151 152 152 151 150 148 144 138 132 131 117 108 107 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -52.8 -52.9 -53.2 -53.1 -52.8 -52.8 -52.8 -52.8 -52.6 -52.6 -52.1 -52.5 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 5 5 5 4 4 3 3 3 3 2 700-500 MB RH 64 67 72 74 74 72 73 75 73 74 68 65 59 GFS VTEX (KT) 4 5 5 5 6 7 8 9 9 9 10 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -32 -29 -22 -10 2 33 37 50 55 51 44 40 32 200 MB DIV 28 26 48 41 43 57 59 60 98 55 53 51 24 700-850 TADV -2 -2 -1 0 0 -1 -2 -2 -3 1 7 4 3 LAND (KM) 1489 1543 1592 1634 1679 1785 1896 2002 2104 2212 2094 1870 1685 LAT (DEG N) 13.0 13.1 13.2 13.3 13.4 13.6 14.1 14.8 15.5 16.5 17.7 18.8 19.7 LONG(DEG W) 119.5 120.4 121.2 122.0 122.8 124.5 126.4 128.4 130.5 132.7 135.0 137.0 138.7 STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 8 8 8 9 10 11 11 12 12 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 16 14 13 13 13 12 15 3 2 22 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 684 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 30.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 39.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 8. 14. 21. 25. 28. 29. 29. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -10. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 8. 8. 9. 9. 8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -6. -8. -8. -8. -7. -8. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. 0. 1. 5. 9. 13. 13. 11. 8. 3. -1. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902013 INVEST 08/02/13 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.0 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.1 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 30.2 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 13.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 37.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 35.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 19% is 1.4 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902013 INVEST 08/02/13 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##