* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902013 08/02/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 29 30 36 42 47 50 49 46 42 39 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 29 30 36 42 47 50 49 46 42 39 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 27 27 29 30 31 32 34 34 34 32 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 8 10 13 15 11 11 11 10 12 8 13 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -3 -4 -3 -2 0 0 -2 1 0 0 3 1 SHEAR DIR 332 329 325 324 326 335 320 338 325 343 304 276 264 SST (C) 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.8 28.8 28.6 28.4 28.0 27.4 26.8 26.4 25.2 POT. INT. (KT) 151 151 151 150 151 152 150 148 144 138 132 128 116 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.3 -53.5 -53.5 -53.1 -53.5 -53.0 -53.5 -52.7 -53.2 -52.4 -53.0 -52.6 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 4 4 3 700-500 MB RH 64 64 65 67 69 73 71 71 69 69 69 68 66 GFS VTEX (KT) 4 4 4 4 4 5 7 8 8 9 7 6 5 850 MB ENV VOR -24 -22 -25 -23 -22 -10 27 38 42 40 32 24 17 200 MB DIV 25 31 55 43 47 51 71 65 83 91 50 30 36 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -1 -2 -3 0 -2 -2 -4 -6 1 0 1 LAND (KM) 1342 1380 1422 1473 1526 1620 1701 1808 1903 2011 2081 2175 2132 LAT (DEG N) 12.7 12.8 12.9 12.9 12.9 13.1 13.3 13.5 14.0 14.7 15.7 16.8 18.0 LONG(DEG W) 116.8 117.6 118.4 119.2 119.9 121.5 123.0 124.7 126.4 128.4 130.4 132.5 134.6 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 7 7 8 8 8 9 10 11 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 19 17 17 15 14 12 13 12 17 2 21 11 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 614 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 66.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 8. 15. 21. 27. 30. 31. 32. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 4. 6. 7. 7. 5. 3. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 5. 11. 17. 22. 25. 24. 21. 17. 14. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902013 INVEST 08/02/13 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.7 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.8 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.7 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 16.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 40.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 59.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 27% is 2.0 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 20% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 13% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902013 INVEST 08/02/13 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##