* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902013 08/01/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 29 31 35 40 45 47 46 42 38 32 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 29 31 35 40 45 47 46 42 38 32 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 27 28 30 32 33 34 35 34 32 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 8 6 7 10 14 14 15 18 13 14 24 30 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 -2 0 0 -2 1 -3 0 5 0 0 2 SHEAR DIR 346 353 4 344 334 355 330 343 325 317 289 269 266 SST (C) 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.8 28.6 28.3 27.9 27.1 26.4 25.6 24.3 POT. INT. (KT) 151 151 150 150 151 152 150 147 143 136 129 121 107 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -52.9 -53.1 -53.4 -53.4 -53.1 -53.3 -52.8 -52.9 -52.7 -53.1 -52.8 -52.6 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 4 3 2 2 700-500 MB RH 61 64 64 65 67 72 71 73 70 70 67 67 62 GFS VTEX (KT) 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 5 6 6 5 4 2 850 MB ENV VOR -4 -5 -2 -2 6 9 21 34 37 44 33 25 8 200 MB DIV 40 24 16 34 16 55 49 31 21 37 -1 28 26 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 -1 0 -1 -2 0 0 3 5 8 LAND (KM) 1334 1367 1405 1442 1482 1555 1617 1691 1788 1900 1998 2135 2055 LAT (DEG N) 12.5 12.7 12.8 12.9 13.0 13.4 13.8 14.3 14.8 15.6 16.6 17.8 19.2 LONG(DEG W) 116.3 117.2 118.0 118.7 119.4 120.9 122.4 124.0 125.7 127.9 130.2 132.8 135.2 STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 7 7 7 8 8 9 10 12 13 14 13 HEAT CONTENT 22 22 20 18 17 14 12 10 10 21 1 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 558 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 45.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 8. 15. 21. 26. 29. 31. 32. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 6. 10. 15. 20. 22. 21. 17. 13. 7. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902013 INVEST 08/01/13 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.5 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.7 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.6 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 19.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 26.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 38.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 28% is 2.1 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902013 INVEST 08/01/13 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##