* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902013 08/01/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 27 28 31 34 35 36 35 34 33 32 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 27 28 31 34 35 36 35 34 33 32 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 26 26 28 28 29 29 29 28 27 26 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 14 17 15 12 19 15 15 13 20 16 13 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -8 -6 -6 -6 -5 -1 0 2 0 -2 0 -2 -4 SHEAR DIR 340 322 321 324 330 326 333 308 297 292 296 286 250 SST (C) 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.8 28.7 28.4 28.0 27.4 26.8 26.3 25.9 POT. INT. (KT) 154 153 151 151 151 152 150 147 144 138 132 127 123 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.3 -53.1 -52.7 -52.9 -53.2 -53.1 -53.4 -53.1 -53.1 -52.7 -53.2 -53.2 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 7 7 6 5 5 4 4 3 3 3 700-500 MB RH 63 60 59 61 62 67 68 69 68 67 67 69 66 GFS VTEX (KT) 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 7 7 6 850 MB ENV VOR -16 -14 -11 -14 -11 -1 7 12 17 31 39 30 23 200 MB DIV 14 22 43 32 27 29 54 30 50 32 27 17 24 700-850 TADV -2 -2 -2 0 0 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 0 -2 1 LAND (KM) 1235 1261 1297 1331 1372 1453 1506 1570 1661 1773 1866 1983 2128 LAT (DEG N) 12.6 12.8 13.0 13.2 13.4 13.8 14.3 14.7 15.1 15.6 16.2 16.8 17.5 LONG(DEG W) 114.4 115.5 116.5 117.4 118.3 119.9 121.4 122.8 124.4 126.2 128.1 130.2 132.5 STM SPEED (KT) 12 10 9 9 8 8 7 8 9 9 10 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 19 22 20 18 18 20 10 11 9 1 12 3 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 611 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 32.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 8. 15. 21. 27. 30. 31. 33. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -11. -10. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 10. 11. 10. 9. 8. 7. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902013 INVEST 08/01/13 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.5 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.1 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.8 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 19.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 20.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 22% is 1.7 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902013 INVEST 08/01/13 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##