* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902013 07/30/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 34 37 42 45 47 44 38 32 27 22 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 34 37 42 45 47 44 38 32 27 22 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 29 31 34 36 35 34 31 27 23 20 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 4 4 4 8 13 20 17 27 24 26 30 28 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 1 -2 0 3 0 1 4 5 5 4 -1 1 SHEAR DIR 31 33 31 329 303 295 295 288 292 298 288 273 285 SST (C) 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.1 28.6 28.5 28.1 27.2 26.2 25.3 24.0 23.0 POT. INT. (KT) 156 156 156 157 157 151 150 145 135 125 115 102 91 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -53.5 -53.7 -53.8 -53.5 -53.4 -53.1 -52.9 -52.9 -52.4 -52.5 -51.6 -51.9 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 8 8 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 2 2 700-500 MB RH 73 73 72 72 70 65 66 64 62 60 58 54 51 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -21 -21 -21 -19 -17 -12 -2 9 4 11 9 13 3 200 MB DIV 71 80 80 81 53 38 48 44 27 38 8 17 -21 700-850 TADV 2 2 1 2 3 2 0 0 0 1 0 3 0 LAND (KM) 945 980 1022 1066 1125 1113 1138 1159 1189 1239 1296 1366 1468 LAT (DEG N) 11.4 11.9 12.3 12.8 13.3 14.4 15.5 16.6 17.5 18.5 19.2 19.9 20.4 LONG(DEG W) 108.5 109.8 111.1 112.3 113.4 115.6 117.5 119.2 120.7 122.2 123.6 125.3 127.0 STM SPEED (KT) 14 13 13 12 12 12 10 9 8 8 8 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 26 22 21 18 17 17 15 17 2 1 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 543 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 76.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 8. 15. 22. 27. 29. 30. 30. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 5. 4. 2. -1. -3. -6. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 12. 17. 20. 22. 19. 13. 7. 2. -3. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902013 INVEST 07/30/13 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.8 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 131.3 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.7 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 20.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 73.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 66.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 46% is 3.5 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 30% is 3.4 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 20% is 3.4 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 16% is 3.8 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902013 INVEST 07/30/13 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##