* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902012 07/24/12 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 33 35 40 45 49 51 47 45 42 34 V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 33 35 40 45 49 51 47 45 42 34 V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 30 30 30 30 31 33 35 35 34 32 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 6 5 6 5 8 10 6 2 7 8 11 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 0 -4 -4 -1 0 0 -1 2 0 4 SHEAR DIR 261 281 317 333 328 4 35 50 349 327 330 297 286 SST (C) 28.1 28.1 28.2 28.2 28.2 27.8 27.5 27.3 26.8 26.3 25.1 24.5 24.1 POT. INT. (KT) 145 145 146 146 146 142 139 138 133 129 117 110 106 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.3 -53.0 -53.1 -53.3 -52.6 -53.1 -52.7 -53.2 -52.3 -52.3 -51.9 -52.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 7 7 6 5 4 4 4 3 2 2 700-500 MB RH 72 71 70 69 70 72 71 73 68 62 62 57 58 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 9 9 8 8 9 10 10 11 10 11 11 9 850 MB ENV VOR -11 -9 -10 -9 -15 -1 2 6 4 -4 -3 -10 -14 200 MB DIV 75 77 77 73 46 44 59 52 19 10 13 26 8 700-850 TADV -3 -1 -4 -5 -3 -2 -1 0 0 -1 7 9 5 LAND (KM) 1606 1638 1674 1713 1756 1852 1941 2057 2211 2377 2162 1783 1438 LAT (DEG N) 9.9 10.0 10.1 10.3 10.4 10.9 11.4 12.0 12.6 13.4 14.3 15.5 16.7 LONG(DEG W) 116.6 117.5 118.3 119.2 120.1 122.1 124.1 126.4 128.9 131.9 135.2 138.5 141.5 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 9 10 10 11 12 14 16 17 16 16 HEAT CONTENT 30 31 32 27 21 13 7 4 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 534 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 73.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 18. 22. 23. 24. 24. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -3. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -9. -9. -10. -10. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 4. 5. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 10. 15. 19. 21. 17. 15. 12. 4. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902012 INVEST 07/24/12 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.9 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.0 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 28.2 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.5 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 69.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 69.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 28% is 2.4 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 23% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 16% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)