* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902012 07/23/12 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 35 38 40 44 48 51 54 54 50 45 37 V (KT) LAND 30 33 35 38 40 44 48 51 54 54 50 45 37 V (KT) LGE mod 30 33 36 37 38 37 37 39 42 45 46 44 39 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 7 6 4 4 5 3 6 4 3 6 12 28 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 0 -3 -4 -4 -6 -3 -3 0 2 0 0 SHEAR DIR 262 281 301 258 266 348 335 65 78 144 258 287 327 SST (C) 28.3 28.3 28.2 28.1 28.0 28.0 27.6 27.1 27.0 26.7 26.5 25.8 25.5 POT. INT. (KT) 147 147 146 146 145 144 140 135 135 132 130 123 120 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.0 -53.4 -53.6 -53.3 -53.0 -53.0 -52.8 -53.0 -52.7 -52.9 -52.6 -52.9 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 4 4 4 3 3 700-500 MB RH 73 73 72 73 70 70 68 68 66 66 60 60 61 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 9 8 9 9 10 9 9 9 10 10 9 7 850 MB ENV VOR 4 0 -8 -15 -14 -9 -16 -6 -6 -3 -11 -14 -19 200 MB DIV 59 75 73 59 46 58 27 17 20 21 7 -15 -30 700-850 TADV -3 -2 -2 0 -1 -3 -3 -1 0 0 3 3 5 LAND (KM) 1317 1366 1421 1468 1507 1608 1720 1848 1995 2162 2324 2330 2004 LAT (DEG N) 10.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 113.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 10 11 11 10 11 11 12 12 13 15 15 HEAT CONTENT 31 35 38 34 31 24 16 6 5 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 563 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 71.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 13. 18. 22. 24. 25. 25. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 12. 12. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -9. -7. -5. -4. -7. -8. -9. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 8. 10. 14. 18. 21. 24. 24. 20. 15. 7. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902012 INVEST 07/23/12 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.1 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.1 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 33.8 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.1 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 62.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 62.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 33% is 2.8 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 27% is 3.4 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 20% is 3.7 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)