* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902012 05/13/12 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 25 26 27 23 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 25 26 27 23 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 25 25 23 20 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 5 8 12 15 20 27 31 42 39 36 36 41 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 6 5 2 4 3 3 1 -1 -1 2 -1 -4 SHEAR DIR 173 159 153 196 223 229 227 241 255 268 273 262 268 SST (C) 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.1 28.7 27.9 27.1 26.7 26.1 25.6 25.4 25.1 24.6 POT. INT. (KT) 156 158 157 155 151 143 135 131 124 119 116 113 107 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.2 -52.4 -52.4 -52.8 -52.4 -53.4 -52.8 -54.0 -54.3 -54.8 -54.7 -54.9 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 6 6 5 6 6 5 700-500 MB RH 66 63 66 62 66 61 55 52 43 34 28 25 22 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 10 11 11 12 13 11 12 10 10 8 7 7 850 MB ENV VOR 15 23 21 26 28 27 13 18 7 2 -1 6 20 200 MB DIV 61 41 31 38 20 27 -8 25 -15 -54 -64 -61 -38 700-850 TADV 2 3 4 3 5 3 -1 1 -1 -4 -3 5 0 LAND (KM) 859 830 805 803 805 831 907 1016 1064 1148 1275 1374 1454 LAT (DEG N) 10.5 11.0 11.4 11.8 12.2 13.0 13.7 14.3 14.8 15.2 15.2 15.2 15.4 LONG(DEG W) 104.8 105.4 105.9 106.7 107.4 109.1 111.1 113.3 115.4 117.3 119.0 120.6 122.0 STM SPEED (KT) 3 7 8 8 9 10 11 11 10 9 8 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 4 4 4 3 5 9 5 4 3 1 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 25/ 2 CX,CY: 1/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 504 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 72.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 7. 14. 20. 24. 26. 27. 27. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. -2. -7. -12. -15. -17. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -2. -5. -8. -11. -14. -16. -17. -18. -19. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 3. 4. 2. 1. -1. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 0. 1. 2. -2. -4. -12. -18. -25. -28. -31. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902012 INVEST 05/13/12 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.3 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.4 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 4.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 130.3 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 38.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 62.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 26% is 2.2 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 19% is 2.4 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 13% is 2.4 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 8% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902012 INVEST 05/13/12 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##