* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC PROXY USED * * ISELLE EP092014 08/08/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 37 32 27 24 21 21 22 27 28 27 29 32 V (KT) LAND 45 38 33 28 25 22 22 23 28 29 28 30 33 V (KT) LGE mod 45 38 32 29 26 23 22 23 25 28 31 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 28 35 34 27 27 29 10 10 2 5 7 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -10 -6 2 1 -2 -4 -5 -1 -4 1 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 302 323 319 294 278 250 230 202 284 25 59 N/A N/A SST (C) 26.6 26.8 27.0 27.2 27.4 27.6 27.5 27.5 28.0 28.5 28.6 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 130 133 135 137 138 141 140 140 146 151 153 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.2 -53.0 -53.2 -53.7 -54.0 -54.2 -54.0 -53.6 -53.7 -53.3 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 9 9 10 10 10 10 10 10 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 37 40 44 44 47 50 49 49 50 50 50 N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 12 12 11 10 9 9 8 7 7 5 4 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -4 -9 -6 -9 -12 -11 -8 -11 -16 -29 -40 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -52 -15 5 -17 12 -7 -11 -17 -12 -10 6 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 5 0 1 0 -1 -2 -2 2 0 7 0 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 4 80 166 190 210 342 582 844 1112 1414 1771 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.2 19.5 19.8 20.0 20.2 20.7 21.4 22.1 22.7 23.6 24.8 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 155.4 156.8 158.2 159.4 160.6 162.8 165.4 168.0 170.6 173.5 176.9 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 14 12 11 11 12 13 12 14 15 17 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 18 8 33 34 28 22 16 13 22 29 12 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 673 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 24.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 10. 12. 14. 15. 15. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -7. -7. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE -5. -9. -11. -12. -12. -12. -11. -8. -7. -7. -5. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -9. -10. -10. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. -11. -11. -10. -10. -10. -10. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -8. -13. -18. -21. -24. -24. -23. -18. -17. -18. -16. -13. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP092014 ISELLE 08/08/14 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -25.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 30.3 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 89.7 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.5 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 24.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : -13.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 16.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 60.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092014 ISELLE 08/08/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##