* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CRISTINA EP032014 06/14/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 80 78 76 73 68 58 45 31 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 80 78 76 73 68 58 45 31 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 80 77 74 70 66 57 49 41 33 27 21 17 DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 7 11 14 13 17 21 21 23 20 15 19 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 7 2 0 0 2 0 6 3 3 3 0 0 SHEAR DIR 291 249 230 243 259 272 278 272 261 263 233 218 213 SST (C) 27.3 26.9 26.6 26.3 26.0 25.6 24.9 24.3 23.7 23.2 22.8 22.6 22.6 POT. INT. (KT) 135 131 127 124 121 117 109 103 97 91 87 84 84 200 MB T (C) -50.4 -50.6 -51.0 -51.0 -50.8 -51.1 -51.1 -51.4 -51.7 -51.9 -52.2 -52.8 -52.8 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 6 6 4 4 3 3 2 2 2 2 700-500 MB RH 58 56 56 54 50 47 41 40 32 29 22 21 19 GFS VTEX (KT) 19 19 19 19 17 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 3 850 MB ENV VOR 10 12 6 2 -5 -2 -16 -22 -41 -43 -73 -76 -85 200 MB DIV 39 20 3 9 -6 -22 -27 -20 -40 -33 -14 -9 2 700-850 TADV -6 -4 1 2 -1 -1 0 0 2 1 1 1 -2 LAND (KM) 469 444 425 419 416 433 465 498 519 549 588 628 675 LAT (DEG N) 18.7 19.0 19.3 19.5 19.7 20.0 20.5 20.8 21.1 21.3 21.5 21.5 21.3 LONG(DEG W) 110.5 111.0 111.4 111.8 112.1 112.8 113.7 114.5 115.4 116.1 116.8 117.3 117.7 STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 2 2 HEAT CONTENT 6 5 4 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 539 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -8. -14. -20. -26. -31. -35. -38. -43. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -9. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -11. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -2. -4. -7. -10. -13. -15. -18. -20. -21. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -7. -12. -22. -35. -49. -62. -75. -87. -96.-104. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP032014 CRISTINA 06/14/14 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.5 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 47.5 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.2 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 4.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 13.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 91.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 59.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 16% is 1.2 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 8% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 7% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032014 CRISTINA 06/14/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##