* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CRISTINA EP032014 06/11/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 61 68 74 79 86 88 85 78 71 61 53 43 V (KT) LAND 55 61 68 74 79 86 88 85 78 71 61 53 43 V (KT) LGE mod 55 61 67 72 75 80 82 81 75 66 56 49 42 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 8 5 6 6 2 2 5 6 15 17 19 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -5 -7 -8 -7 -1 4 5 5 1 -6 0 1 SHEAR DIR 4 345 327 340 345 319 121 236 219 227 252 266 264 SST (C) 29.9 29.8 29.7 29.7 29.5 29.2 28.7 28.0 27.2 26.5 25.9 25.1 24.2 POT. INT. (KT) 162 161 160 161 159 155 150 143 134 127 120 113 103 200 MB T (C) -51.0 -51.2 -51.6 -51.5 -51.0 -51.7 -50.2 -51.2 -50.3 -50.9 -50.5 -50.7 -50.9 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 9 8 9 7 8 7 7 6 5 4 3 700-500 MB RH 63 62 60 59 59 56 55 54 52 50 44 38 32 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 13 14 16 16 18 18 19 19 19 17 16 14 850 MB ENV VOR 18 9 -1 3 7 7 15 12 3 -4 -11 -9 -13 200 MB DIV 49 40 38 56 52 11 57 3 26 7 -20 -18 -14 700-850 TADV -2 -3 -2 -1 0 0 0 0 -1 0 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 298 315 341 366 399 440 480 548 539 524 526 586 649 LAT (DEG N) 15.4 15.5 15.5 15.7 15.8 16.2 16.9 17.6 18.2 18.8 19.3 19.7 20.0 LONG(DEG W) 103.5 104.1 104.7 105.4 106.1 107.5 108.7 110.0 111.3 112.5 113.3 114.5 115.9 STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 6 7 HEAT CONTENT 34 37 40 39 35 23 19 16 7 3 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 534 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 13. 13. 12. 10. 8. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 5. 7. 9. 10. 9. 7. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 5. 9. 10. 11. 10. 10. 8. 7. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 13. 19. 24. 31. 33. 30. 23. 16. 6. -2. -12. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP032014 CRISTINA 06/11/14 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.6 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.5 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.6 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 37.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 47.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 90.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 62% is 4.7 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 51% is 5.8 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 42% is 6.7 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 42% is 10.1 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032014 CRISTINA 06/11/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##