* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * AMANDA EP012014 05/29/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 30 26 22 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 35 30 26 22 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 35 29 25 22 20 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 20 18 17 16 15 11 6 6 10 9 10 10 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 -4 -5 -4 -6 -4 4 6 2 8 11 15 11 SHEAR DIR 192 181 178 173 180 172 147 122 103 99 98 70 76 SST (C) 27.6 27.6 27.6 27.6 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.7 27.7 27.4 POT. INT. (KT) 138 138 138 138 138 136 137 136 136 136 139 139 135 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.7 -51.6 -51.4 -51.6 -51.8 -51.5 -51.8 -51.7 -52.1 -51.9 -52.2 -52.4 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 6 6 7 7 6 6 6 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 64 63 62 59 56 50 46 42 39 39 36 35 34 GFS VTEX (KT) 16 15 15 14 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 6 850 MB ENV VOR 43 47 52 51 48 54 59 51 59 58 44 44 31 200 MB DIV 32 23 16 31 48 26 33 11 0 12 -6 -37 -36 700-850 TADV 0 -3 -4 -3 -2 -2 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 708 648 589 537 485 438 464 513 593 674 746 810 859 LAT (DEG N) 16.6 16.9 17.1 17.3 17.5 17.7 17.7 17.6 17.3 16.9 16.4 16.1 16.0 LONG(DEG W) 111.1 110.6 110.1 109.7 109.2 108.8 109.1 109.6 110.3 111.0 111.8 112.8 113.7 STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 5 5 4 0 2 3 4 4 5 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 5 6 7 7 7 6 6 6 5 4 3 1 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 40/ 6 CX,CY: 4/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 530 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 12.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 11. 14. 17. 19. 20. 21. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. -5. -5. -4. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -11. -11. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -2. -3. -4. -7. -8. -10. -10. -12. -12. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -7. -7. -7. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -10. -12. -13. -14. -14. -15. -15. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -5. -9. -13. -17. -22. -28. -32. -34. -35. -38. -37. -35. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP012014 AMANDA 05/29/14 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -15.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.4 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.0 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.7 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 6.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 30.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 6.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP012014 AMANDA 05/29/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##