* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * AMANDA EP012014 05/27/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 110 108 103 97 90 78 64 57 48 41 33 29 27 V (KT) LAND 110 108 103 97 90 78 64 57 48 41 33 29 27 V (KT) LGE mod 110 107 102 95 88 74 62 54 48 45 43 42 40 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 15 19 19 16 9 7 5 7 7 6 6 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 5 3 6 6 11 13 1 1 0 5 5 3 SHEAR DIR 180 191 204 204 208 240 186 207 175 176 180 160 130 SST (C) 28.9 28.7 28.5 28.3 28.2 27.9 27.7 27.6 27.6 27.5 27.3 27.4 27.4 POT. INT. (KT) 151 149 146 144 143 140 137 136 136 135 132 134 135 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.0 -51.4 -50.9 -51.1 -51.1 -51.3 -51.5 -51.1 -51.5 -51.3 -51.3 -51.4 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 6 700-500 MB RH 69 68 67 68 67 63 57 49 47 45 42 41 38 GFS VTEX (KT) 23 21 20 20 20 20 18 19 18 17 16 15 15 850 MB ENV VOR 58 45 43 44 44 43 43 42 46 37 36 51 55 200 MB DIV 78 65 81 83 55 51 21 3 43 10 4 1 13 700-850 TADV 1 1 3 1 1 2 4 1 0 0 1 3 4 LAND (KM) 966 947 926 906 875 819 759 733 704 678 629 645 695 LAT (DEG N) 14.0 14.4 14.7 15.0 15.3 15.8 16.3 16.5 16.7 16.9 17.3 17.2 16.9 LONG(DEG W) 112.1 112.2 112.2 112.2 112.2 112.1 111.9 111.7 111.4 111.2 110.9 111.2 111.9 STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 3 3 3 3 2 1 2 2 1 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 33 29 25 21 18 13 9 7 7 7 5 4 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 4 CX,CY: 0/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 105 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 596 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -5. -11. -19. -26. -32. -37. -42. -45. -48. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -6. -9. -11. -11. -8. -4. -1. 1. 3. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -5. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. -8. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -7. -13. -20. -32. -46. -53. -62. -69. -77. -81. -83. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP012014 AMANDA 05/27/14 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.6 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 36.5 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 25.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 72.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 96.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 19% is 1.4 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP012014 AMANDA 05/27/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##