* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ONE EP012014 05/22/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 33 37 45 54 58 61 60 58 54 48 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 33 37 45 54 58 61 60 58 54 48 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 27 28 30 34 39 45 50 53 54 50 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 8 9 9 8 7 7 9 12 13 17 20 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -6 -5 -5 -4 -9 -7 -4 0 -3 -1 1 6 SHEAR DIR 161 170 178 174 156 140 137 158 150 181 206 215 246 SST (C) 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.0 28.5 27.7 26.9 POT. INT. (KT) 156 157 156 155 156 155 154 153 154 152 148 140 132 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.5 -52.7 -53.1 -52.8 -52.7 -52.7 -52.7 -52.6 -52.6 -52.8 -52.8 -52.9 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 700-500 MB RH 78 79 80 80 76 71 66 62 61 58 53 51 51 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 9 10 10 11 11 11 11 12 12 11 10 9 850 MB ENV VOR -1 6 15 23 30 30 35 26 21 19 12 7 0 200 MB DIV 79 117 105 77 75 64 55 51 39 37 38 58 46 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 3 LAND (KM) 987 977 969 968 970 975 981 1012 1047 1086 1146 1145 1160 LAT (DEG N) 10.2 10.6 10.9 11.2 11.4 11.9 12.3 12.5 12.6 12.8 13.2 13.8 14.6 LONG(DEG W) 107.2 107.7 108.1 108.5 108.9 109.8 110.5 111.2 111.8 112.5 113.7 115.1 116.7 STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 5 5 5 4 4 3 3 5 7 8 9 HEAT CONTENT 29 28 29 32 34 40 44 46 46 43 32 21 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 591 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 79.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 8. 15. 22. 29. 32. 34. 36. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -7. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 5. 5. 3. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 12. 20. 29. 33. 36. 35. 33. 29. 23. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP012014 ONE 05/22/14 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.9 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 131.0 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.1 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 30.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 90.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 70.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 42% is 3.2 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 28% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 20% is 3.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 14% is 3.4 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP012014 ONE 05/22/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##