* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP992012 10/30/12 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 24 24 23 21 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 25 24 24 23 21 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 24 23 22 21 18 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 30 33 31 27 31 31 29 36 33 33 47 54 63 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 2 3 2 4 3 1 1 4 -1 -3 -5 SHEAR DIR 301 312 312 302 301 304 278 279 278 270 263 254 236 SST (C) 29.1 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.8 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.8 28.8 28.8 29.2 29.5 POT. INT. (KT) 153 153 151 149 149 147 146 147 148 150 152 157 160 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.8 -53.9 -53.9 -54.1 -54.0 -54.1 -54.0 -54.6 -54.2 -53.9 -54.6 -54.6 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 6 5 700-500 MB RH 70 70 67 62 59 53 53 52 55 57 53 53 49 GFS VTEX (KT) 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 6 7 7 8 7 8 850 MB ENV VOR -37 -43 -56 -55 -49 -52 -22 -17 1 7 11 7 28 200 MB DIV 10 8 0 8 9 8 47 34 48 9 2 30 53 700-850 TADV -2 0 0 0 -1 -1 0 0 0 0 2 3 6 LAND (KM) 626 617 596 589 583 594 601 586 574 517 369 179 19 LAT (DEG N) 13.8 14.3 14.7 14.9 15.1 15.2 15.2 15.3 15.2 15.7 16.8 18.5 20.6 LONG(DEG W) 106.9 107.4 107.8 108.0 108.2 108.5 108.6 108.5 108.2 108.0 107.2 106.4 105.7 STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 4 3 2 1 0 1 2 5 8 10 11 HEAT CONTENT 43 44 46 48 50 53 54 53 51 51 41 49 36 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 618 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 24.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 15. 21. 27. 30. 33. 35. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. -1. -5. -9. -14. -19. -22. -25. -29. -34. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -9. -11. -12. -14. -14. -13. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 5. 7. 6. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -10. -11. -12. -12. -13. -13. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -8. -11. -15. -17. -19. -23. -26. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP992012 INVEST 10/30/12 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 30.4 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.3 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 46.2 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.1 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 7.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 12.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)