* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP992012 09/02/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 37 42 45 52 58 56 48 40 33 26 21 V (KT) LAND 30 33 37 42 45 52 58 56 48 40 33 26 21 V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 32 33 34 36 35 34 30 26 23 21 19 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 14 13 15 12 10 12 8 0 4 2 3 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 1 2 3 0 1 -4 0 -5 -5 -4 -5 SHEAR DIR 46 57 49 54 66 55 42 54 298 303 84 198 169 SST (C) 28.8 28.6 28.3 28.1 27.9 27.3 25.7 23.2 21.9 21.6 21.6 21.3 21.0 POT. INT. (KT) 156 153 150 147 145 139 122 95 81 77 76 72 69 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.1 -52.4 -52.1 -51.1 -51.6 -50.6 -51.1 -50.5 -50.9 -51.2 -51.9 -52.3 TH_E DEV (C) 9 7 7 8 8 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 82 81 80 81 78 75 72 66 59 57 53 51 46 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 14 16 18 17 19 22 23 21 19 18 15 13 850 MB ENV VOR 74 64 51 51 56 46 58 78 78 78 73 70 58 200 MB DIV 87 71 66 74 90 52 33 58 7 1 7 6 8 700-850 TADV -7 -6 -4 -4 -7 -8 -14 -8 1 -4 -1 -1 -1 LAND (KM) 205 231 282 372 390 432 564 763 925 1089 1224 1314 1359 LAT (DEG N) 16.7 17.4 18.1 18.8 19.4 20.5 21.3 21.9 22.1 22.1 22.1 22.2 22.7 LONG(DEG W) 104.3 105.8 107.3 108.8 110.3 113.3 116.3 119.1 121.7 123.8 125.4 126.5 127.3 STM SPEED (KT) 19 16 16 16 15 15 14 13 11 8 6 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 41 42 28 7 5 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 23 CX,CY: -21/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 250 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 77.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 13. 16. 15. 14. 12. 10. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -2. -2. -3. -4. -3. -4. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -11. -13. -14. -14. -13. -12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 3. 7. 12. 13. 10. 8. 6. 2. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 9. 9. 9. 9. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -8. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 12. 15. 22. 28. 26. 18. 10. 3. -4. -9. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP992012 INVEST 09/02/12 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.9 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.3 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 24.6 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.2 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 77.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 70.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 80.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 25% is 2.2 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 19% is 2.4 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 13% is 2.4 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 6% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 3.9%)