* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP982013 11/16/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 31 29 24 23 21 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 31 31 29 24 24 26 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 31 30 29 26 26 27 27 27 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 18 26 33 42 46 44 45 48 63 67 60 54 52 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 2 3 5 0 -6 0 0 0 -5 1 0 -2 SHEAR DIR 172 181 185 189 199 212 229 245 253 265 272 286 292 SST (C) 28.1 28.1 28.3 28.9 29.2 28.5 27.3 26.2 25.0 24.1 23.4 22.9 23.1 POT. INT. (KT) 146 147 150 156 159 150 137 126 114 105 98 93 95 200 MB T (C) -54.5 -54.7 -54.4 -54.0 -54.3 -54.4 -54.6 -55.0 -55.6 -57.0 -57.8 -58.2 -58.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 8 7 8 6 3 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 62 60 58 58 54 46 51 56 60 58 52 47 42 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 9 9 6 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -48 -47 -30 -20 -8 -25 11 6 -23 -55 -78 -94 -126 200 MB DIV 124 109 91 78 40 -10 -5 28 28 1 -21 -21 -10 700-850 TADV 8 4 0 -5 -1 -1 0 7 18 25 25 20 38 LAND (KM) 671 524 392 239 93 -202 -377 -406 -263 -167 -54 -65 -87 LAT (DEG N) 17.0 18.2 19.4 20.5 21.6 23.0 24.2 25.9 27.7 29.4 30.2 30.7 31.3 LONG(DEG W) 111.4 110.5 109.5 108.0 106.5 103.8 102.5 101.5 100.0 97.7 94.2 90.7 87.4 STM SPEED (KT) 11 15 16 18 16 11 9 10 12 14 16 15 15 HEAT CONTENT 8 5 6 13 21 35 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 20/ 9 CX,CY: 3/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 808 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 46.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 14. 19. 21. 22. 21. 20. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 0. -1. -5. -11. -20. -33. -47. -58. -65. -69. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 5. 7. 9. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 12. 15. 18. 20. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -2. -6. -8. -8. -9. -9. -8. -9. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. -1. -6. -7. -9. -15. -23. -35. -45. -52. -57. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP982013 INVEST 11/16/13 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 33.1 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.7 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.1 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 10.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 88.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 38.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP982013 INVEST 11/16/13 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##