* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP982013 11/16/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 24 24 20 18 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 25 24 24 20 20 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 24 24 23 21 25 26 27 27 27 26 26 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 12 20 27 35 44 47 48 49 57 74 78 73 66 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 4 3 3 5 -6 -6 -1 3 -9 -11 -12 -3 SHEAR DIR 176 174 182 187 191 214 229 245 250 259 258 268 282 SST (C) 28.3 28.0 27.9 28.4 28.8 28.5 26.8 25.5 24.6 23.8 23.1 23.7 23.4 POT. INT. (KT) 148 146 145 151 156 152 133 119 110 103 95 102 99 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -54.6 -54.8 -54.5 -54.2 -54.5 -54.7 -55.1 -55.6 -56.3 -57.5 -57.4 -57.6 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 7 8 5 8 3 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 62 62 60 57 57 48 47 48 51 58 56 52 44 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 9 8 7 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -35 -41 -36 -27 -12 -30 -14 1 -41 -79 -86 -68 -39 200 MB DIV 109 127 117 96 82 -27 2 -4 42 18 24 -8 -30 700-850 TADV 9 10 8 2 -1 6 -3 1 5 8 -17 -9 0 LAND (KM) 765 610 458 321 240 -149 -450 -289 -112 -44 -96 -8 -34 LAT (DEG N) 16.2 17.5 18.8 20.1 21.4 23.5 25.1 26.8 28.5 29.9 30.5 30.5 30.3 LONG(DEG W) 111.7 111.1 110.5 109.2 107.9 104.7 102.3 100.3 98.0 94.9 91.3 87.5 83.8 STM SPEED (KT) 12 14 16 18 18 16 13 13 14 16 16 16 16 HEAT CONTENT 16 6 4 8 8 33 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 11 CX,CY: -4/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 831 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 37.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 8. 14. 19. 22. 24. 24. 23. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 1. -2. -8. -17. -30. -45. -58. -69. -75. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 3. 6. 8. 10. 11. 11. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 7. 11. 14. 18. 21. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -5. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. -9. -9. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -9. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -1. -5. -7. -8. -11. -18. -30. -42. -51. -56. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP982013 INVEST 11/16/13 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 27.5 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.2 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.3 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 8.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 106.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 34.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP982013 INVEST 11/16/13 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##