*   EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST   *
                    * GOES AVAILABLE,       OHC AVAILABLE       *
                    *      INVEST  EP982013  07/22/13  18 UTC   *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
V (KT) NO LAND    25    28    32    36    40    51    63    71    79    78    77    73    69
V (KT) LAND       25    28    32    36    40    51    63    71    79    78    77    73    69
V (KT) LGE mod    25    27    30    32    34    40    48    57    64    67    66    61    55
Storm Type      TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP

SHEAR (KT)        16    12    11    10     8     7     6     7     6     1     1     8     7
SHEAR ADJ (KT)    -2     0     1     0     0    -1    -3    -3    -2    -2     0    -1    -1
SHEAR DIR         19    39    28    46    58    77    22    39    41    40   266   215   239
SST (C)         28.8  28.7  28.7  28.8  28.7  28.5  28.5  28.1  26.9  25.9  25.0  24.1  23.9
POT. INT. (KT)   153   152   152   153   152   150   150   147   135   125   115   106   104
200 MB T (C)   -53.4 -52.9 -53.1 -53.5 -53.1 -52.7 -52.8 -52.5 -52.6 -52.1 -52.1 -51.5 -51.9
TH_E DEV (C)       6     6     6     6     6     6     5     5     4     3     2     2     2
700-500 MB RH     76    76    77    79    76    75    71    69    64    62    56    56    56
GFS VTEX (KT)      9    10    10    10    10    10    12    14    18    18    20    21    20
850 MB ENV VOR    23    25    20    17    21    18    26    32    32    27    17    33    32
200 MB DIV        34    45    55    53    60    56    46    62    84    53    33    29    23
700-850 TADV      -8    -7   -11    -7    -4    -5    -2    -4    -2     0    -2    -1    -1
LAND (KM)        952   979  1019  1070  1128  1138  1200  1276  1401  1565  1757  1987  1987
LAT (DEG N)     11.8  12.2  12.5  12.9  13.3  14.2  15.1  16.1  17.1  18.1  19.1  20.0  20.7
LONG(DEG W)    109.2 110.3 111.3 112.4 113.5 115.7 117.9 120.3 123.0 126.1 129.4 132.6 135.8
STM SPEED (KT)    11    11    11    11    12    12    12    13    15    16    16    16    15
HEAT CONTENT      32    29    26    24    25    19    18     7     3     0     0     0     0

  FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM      INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 12      CX,CY: -10/  4
  T-12 MAX WIND:  20            PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB):  642  (MEAN=580)
  GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV.  50-200 KM RAD:  18.2 (MEAN=14.5)
  % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C    50-200 KM RAD:  80.0 (MEAN=65.0)

                        INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
                         6   12   18   24   36   48   60   72   84   96  108  120
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE     0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -2.
  SST POTENTIAL          0.   0.   1.   3.   8.  15.  22.  27.  29.  30.  30.  29.
  VERTICAL SHEAR MAG     1.   1.   2.   3.   4.   5.   6.   7.   8.   9.   9.  10.
  VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ     0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   2.   2.
  VERTICAL SHEAR DIR     0.   1.   2.   3.   5.   7.   8.   9.   9.   7.   6.   6.
  PERSISTENCE            1.   1.   2.   2.   2.   2.   2.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.
  200/250 MB TEMP.       0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -3.  -5.  -6.  -8.  -9.  -9.  -9.  -9.
  THETA_E EXCESS         0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -3.  -4.  -6.  -7.  -9. -10.
  700-500 MB RH          0.   1.   1.   1.   2.   3.   3.   3.   3.   3.   3.   3.
  GFS VORTEX TENDENCY    0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   4.   6.  12.  12.  15.  16.  14.
  850 MB ENV VORTICITY   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
  200 MB DIVERGENCE      0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   0.  -1.  -1.
  850-700 T ADVEC        0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.
  ZONAL STORM MOTION     0.   0.   1.   1.   2.   2.   2.   2.   2.   2.   2.   2.
  STEERING LEVEL PRES    0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   2.   2.   2.   2.   2.
  DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
  GOES PREDICTORS        1.   2.   2.   2.   3.   2.   1.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.
  OCEAN HEAT CONTENT     0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.   0.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  TOTAL CHANGE           3.   7.  11.  15.  26.  38.  46.  54.  53.  52.  48.  44.

   ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP982013     INVEST 07/22/13  18 UTC **
 
 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT):   5.0 Range:-20.0 to  35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.5/  0.9
 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) :  11.4 Range: 17.0 to   1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.4/  0.5
 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP :  18.2 Range: 35.4 to   2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.5/  0.8
 Heat content (KJ/cm2) :  27.2 Range:  0.0 to  67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.4/  0.4
 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT)   : 127.5 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.9/  0.8
 D200 (10**7s-1)       :  49.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.4/  0.4
 % area w/pixels <-30 C:  76.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.7/  0.3
 850-700 MB REL HUM (%):  77.4 Range: 64.0 to  88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.6/  0.0
 
 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold=    29% is   2.5 times the sample mean(11.7%)
 Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold=    22% is   2.8 times the sample mean( 7.9%)
 Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold=    16% is   3.0 times the sample mean( 5.4%)
 Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold=     8% is   2.2 times the sample mean( 3.9%)