*   EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST   *
                    * GOES AVAILABLE,       OHC AVAILABLE       *
                    *      INVEST  EP972012  10/13/12  12 UTC   *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
V (KT) NO LAND    25    28    32    38    44    54    58    62    55    49    41    34    27
V (KT) LAND       25    28    32    38    44    54    58    62    55    49    37    31    30
V (KT) LGE mod    25    26    27    28    29    32    34    33    32    29    25    26    29
Storm Type      TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP

SHEAR (KT)         9    10    12    10    12    12    12    18    24    21    19    32    40
SHEAR ADJ (KT)     0    -3     0    -5    -4    -2    -1     0     4     4     5     7     9
SHEAR DIR        133   130   133   148   153   143   176   183   210   199   230   240   237
SST (C)         28.8  28.7  28.4  28.1  27.7  26.5  25.3  24.8  25.9  27.2  26.9  27.9  28.6
POT. INT. (KT)   153   152   149   145   141   127   116   111   123   136   132   141   147
200 MB T (C)   -53.1 -52.7 -52.1 -52.6 -52.8 -51.7 -52.0 -50.9 -50.6 -50.4 -50.3 -50.2 -51.1
TH_E DEV (C)       6     6     6     5     5     5     5     6     5     7     3     6     2
700-500 MB RH     80    78    77    76    75    68    56    47    39    37    33    33    23
GFS VTEX (KT)      9    10    12    13    14    17    17    20    19    18    13    10     7
850 MB ENV VOR    41    53    71    76    81   107   102   106    71    54    45    21    16
200 MB DIV        79   113   135   151   136    96   113    69     6    54    43    55    20
700-850 TADV       2     1     1     0     0    -3    -2   -18     3     3     4     0    -2
LAND (KM)        800   866   870   868   879   836   734   516   269   147   -34   -26    15
LAT (DEG N)     14.7  15.2  15.6  16.0  16.4  17.7  19.1  21.0  23.2  25.4  27.2  28.6  29.2
LONG(DEG W)    110.7 111.9 113.0 113.9 114.8 115.8 115.9 115.2 114.3 113.8 113.7 113.5 113.5
STM SPEED (KT)    12    12    10    10     9     7     9    11    11    10     8     5     3
HEAT CONTENT      31    36    33    23    13     0     0     0     0     1    67    81    13

  FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM      INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 14      CX,CY: -13/  2
  T-12 MAX WIND:  25            PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB):  504  (MEAN=580)
  GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV.  50-200 KM RAD:  21.1 (MEAN=14.5)
  % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C    50-200 KM RAD:  80.0 (MEAN=65.0)

                        INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
                         6   12   18   24   36   48   60   72   84   96  108  120
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE     0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -2.
  SST POTENTIAL          0.   0.   1.   3.   8.  13.  16.  19.  22.  24.  26.  27.
  VERTICAL SHEAR MAG     1.   2.   3.   3.   5.   5.   4.   1.  -2.  -4.  -7. -12.
  VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ     0.   0.   1.   1.   2.   2.   1.   1.   0.   0.  -1.  -2.
  VERTICAL SHEAR DIR     0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.   0.   1.   3.   5.
  PERSISTENCE            0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.   0.
  200/250 MB TEMP.       0.   0.  -1.  -2.  -4.  -6.  -8.  -9. -10. -11. -10.  -9.
  THETA_E EXCESS         0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -3.  -4.  -5.  -5.  -6.  -7.  -8.
  700-500 MB RH          0.   1.   1.   1.   2.   2.   2.   2.   1.   1.   0.   0.
  GFS VORTEX TENDENCY    0.   2.   3.   5.  10.  11.  16.  14.  13.   7.   2.  -2.
  850 MB ENV VORTICITY   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   2.   3.   4.   5.   6.   6.   6.
  200 MB DIVERGENCE      0.   1.   2.   3.   4.   4.   3.   2.   1.   0.  -1.  -2.
  850-700 T ADVEC        0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
  ZONAL STORM MOTION     0.   1.   1.   2.   3.   3.   4.   4.   4.   4.   4.   4.
  STEERING LEVEL PRES    0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.
  DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.
  GOES PREDICTORS        1.   1.   2.   2.   2.   2.   1.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.
  OCEAN HEAT CONTENT     0.   0.   1.   1.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.   0.   0.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  TOTAL CHANGE           3.   7.  13.  19.  29.  33.  37.  30.  24.  16.   9.   2.

   ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP972012     INVEST 10/13/12  12 UTC **
 
 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT):   0.0 Range:-20.0 to  35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.4/  0.7
 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) :  10.4 Range: 17.0 to   1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.4/  0.6
 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP :  21.1 Range: 35.4 to   2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.4/  0.6
 Heat content (KJ/cm2) :  27.2 Range:  0.0 to  67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.4/  0.4
 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT)   : 123.0 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.9/  0.7
 D200 (10**7s-1)       : 122.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  1.0/  0.8
 % area w/pixels <-30 C:  72.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.6/  0.3
 850-700 MB REL HUM (%):  74.6 Range: 64.0 to  88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.4/  0.0
 
 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold=    28% is   2.4 times the sample mean(11.7%)
 Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold=    23% is   3.0 times the sample mean( 7.9%)
 Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold=    17% is   3.1 times the sample mean( 5.4%)
 Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold=     1% is   0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)