* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932012 08/09/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 29 30 32 36 38 42 45 47 49 51 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 29 30 32 36 38 42 45 47 49 51 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 27 28 30 32 32 33 35 37 40 44 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 16 16 20 25 38 23 34 22 25 18 12 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 2 1 1 0 10 -1 6 3 4 3 3 SHEAR DIR 72 78 90 96 81 81 86 70 76 62 72 78 67 SST (C) 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.4 29.6 29.7 29.7 29.7 30.0 POT. INT. (KT) 155 155 154 152 151 152 154 157 159 160 161 162 165 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.8 -52.9 -52.9 -52.3 -52.4 -51.8 -52.8 -52.0 -52.9 -52.0 -52.7 -51.5 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 6 7 7 9 7 11 700-500 MB RH 56 56 60 58 56 62 72 77 81 83 83 84 83 GFS VTEX (KT) 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -28 -20 -18 -8 -1 14 26 30 43 47 62 62 88 200 MB DIV 35 48 50 57 38 87 118 118 117 56 74 45 71 700-850 TADV 0 0 2 1 0 2 -1 1 0 0 -1 -4 -9 LAND (KM) 755 769 783 797 810 805 757 649 514 424 344 269 203 LAT (DEG N) 10.5 10.6 10.7 10.7 10.7 10.7 11.0 11.8 13.0 14.0 15.0 16.2 17.8 LONG(DEG W) 102.5 103.1 103.6 103.9 104.2 104.1 103.7 103.1 102.8 103.0 103.6 104.6 106.0 STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 4 3 1 2 3 5 6 5 7 9 10 HEAT CONTENT 39 43 46 46 44 45 49 51 56 67 83 60 41 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 573 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 28.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 8. 15. 22. 29. 33. 36. 39. 41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. -3. -7. -11. -13. -14. -13. -11. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 8. 11. 15. 17. 18. 19. 19. 18. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -7. -9. -10. -11. -11. -12. -11. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 11. 13. 17. 20. 22. 24. 26. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP932012 INVEST 08/09/12 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.1 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.4 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 43.6 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 128.4 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 45.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 16.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)