* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922013 09/26/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 30 33 36 43 48 51 53 52 50 51 52 V (KT) LAND 25 28 30 33 31 28 27 27 27 29 28 29 29 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 28 26 26 27 27 27 30 32 33 35 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 12 14 11 14 18 16 16 15 15 19 9 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 1 0 -1 -2 -2 -1 -1 -3 -1 0 1 SHEAR DIR 18 5 1 353 347 351 3 7 29 40 66 65 47 SST (C) 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.2 29.1 29.1 29.0 29.0 29.0 28.2 26.8 POT. INT. (KT) 156 156 157 156 156 155 154 154 153 154 154 146 131 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.8 -52.3 -52.2 -51.5 -52.4 -51.8 -52.2 -52.1 -52.7 -52.5 -53.0 -52.9 TH_E DEV (C) 10 8 8 10 11 9 12 9 12 8 10 5 5 700-500 MB RH 75 77 76 75 75 74 72 70 66 66 57 53 48 GFS VTEX (KT) 4 4 4 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 22 40 50 50 55 54 45 45 32 36 30 16 3 200 MB DIV 24 40 39 67 61 34 13 14 22 11 8 0 10 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -1 0 0 2 2 5 0 0 -1 4 -2 LAND (KM) 82 58 34 13 -6 -100 -145 -159 -52 66 166 48 147 LAT (DEG N) 16.1 16.6 17.0 17.5 18.0 18.9 19.8 20.8 21.6 22.1 22.4 22.5 22.9 LONG(DEG W) 100.1 100.6 101.1 101.5 101.9 102.5 103.0 103.7 104.8 106.3 108.1 110.2 111.8 STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 6 6 6 5 5 6 7 8 9 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 19 14 10 2 46 0 0 0 52 15 21 6 11 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 482 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 8. 15. 22. 29. 32. 35. 37. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 1. 0. -2. -4. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 8. 11. 18. 23. 26. 28. 27. 25. 26. 27. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922013 INVEST 09/26/13 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.2 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 131.4 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.2 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 18.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 46.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 86.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 38% is 2.9 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 25% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 17% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 12% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922013 INVEST 09/26/13 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##