* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922013 08/15/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 24 23 21 18 16 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 24 23 21 18 16 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 24 23 22 21 19 17 16 15 15 15 16 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 26 29 29 30 30 27 30 23 23 19 20 22 29 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -5 -3 -2 -3 -2 0 1 -1 -2 -3 -1 2 SHEAR DIR 310 314 313 302 298 289 288 285 294 294 267 262 254 SST (C) 27.0 27.1 27.1 27.1 27.0 26.9 27.1 27.3 27.5 27.7 27.8 27.9 28.0 POT. INT. (KT) 136 137 137 137 136 135 137 138 140 141 142 142 142 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -54.1 -53.9 -53.7 -53.8 -53.5 -53.6 -53.5 -53.5 -53.4 -53.6 -53.8 -54.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 55 55 54 53 54 53 56 56 58 58 59 58 61 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 850 MB ENV VOR -8 -14 -17 -11 -12 -10 2 3 5 12 23 23 27 200 MB DIV -24 -19 0 6 18 42 37 40 9 14 44 48 34 700-850 TADV -2 -1 -1 -2 0 2 -1 3 2 3 2 4 0 LAND (KM) 1019 884 766 652 570 535 683 801 915 1046 1197 1303 1364 LAT (DEG N) 13.8 13.9 13.9 14.0 14.0 14.4 14.9 15.6 16.2 16.9 17.5 18.4 19.3 LONG(DEG W) 147.3 149.0 150.6 152.3 154.0 157.4 160.6 163.4 166.0 168.2 170.2 171.7 172.6 STM SPEED (KT) 17 16 16 16 17 16 15 13 12 10 9 7 5 HEAT CONTENT 5 3 5 4 5 5 13 15 15 18 22 30 34 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 17 CX,CY: -16/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 659 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 21.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 12. 18. 22. 25. 28. 29. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 0. -1. -4. -8. -11. -14. -15. -15. -15. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -12. -12. -12. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -6. -9. -11. -11. -12. -12. -13. -12. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -9. -10. -10. -8. -6. -4. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922013 INVEST 08/15/13 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 28.9 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.8 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.2 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 4.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -3.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 16.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922013 INVEST 08/15/13 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##