* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922013 08/14/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 26 27 27 27 24 23 20 19 19 20 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 26 27 27 27 24 23 20 19 19 20 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 26 26 26 26 24 22 20 18 17 16 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 11 10 12 14 21 24 28 26 24 25 26 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -4 -3 -3 -4 -2 0 1 -2 -3 -3 -3 0 SHEAR DIR 348 353 334 321 312 310 321 311 298 283 290 291 285 SST (C) 28.1 27.8 27.5 27.2 27.0 27.0 27.1 27.2 26.9 26.9 27.2 27.5 27.7 POT. INT. (KT) 147 144 141 138 135 136 137 138 135 135 138 140 142 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.8 -54.0 -54.1 -53.9 -53.8 -53.8 -53.7 -53.4 -53.3 -53.3 -53.7 -53.6 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 700-500 MB RH 56 59 57 57 56 56 56 56 54 54 54 52 51 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 6 7 6 7 6 7 6 6 5 5 5 5 850 MB ENV VOR -4 -4 -5 -5 -10 -10 -23 -15 -18 -13 -1 6 0 200 MB DIV 5 16 16 20 26 -20 -3 -7 37 22 21 40 31 700-850 TADV -1 -3 -2 -1 0 -2 0 1 0 0 0 -2 3 LAND (KM) 2037 1888 1741 1595 1451 1163 892 657 511 580 765 851 988 LAT (DEG N) 13.1 13.2 13.3 13.4 13.5 13.7 13.8 13.9 14.3 14.8 15.4 16.1 17.0 LONG(DEG W) 136.9 138.4 139.8 141.3 142.7 145.7 148.9 152.3 155.7 159.0 162.1 165.0 167.6 STM SPEED (KT) 16 14 14 14 14 15 16 17 17 16 15 14 13 HEAT CONTENT 7 8 10 7 5 26 5 4 3 15 15 15 18 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 571 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 21.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 13. 18. 22. 25. 27. 29. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 0. -3. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. -10. -10. -11. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 1. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -11. -11. -12. -12. -13. -12. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. -1. -2. -5. -6. -6. -5. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922013 INVEST 08/14/13 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.1 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.0 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.7 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 7.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 18.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 19% is 1.4 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922013 INVEST 08/14/13 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##