* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922013 08/09/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 25 29 33 39 48 56 62 68 71 73 75 V (KT) LAND 20 22 25 29 33 39 48 56 62 68 71 73 75 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 21 22 23 25 27 31 37 45 53 62 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 17 16 16 18 22 17 9 4 5 8 7 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 5 0 3 8 1 -4 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -5 SHEAR DIR 9 8 11 20 25 22 38 18 64 73 107 89 80 SST (C) 28.7 28.7 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.4 28.3 28.4 28.5 28.3 28.2 28.1 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 152 151 150 150 150 148 147 148 150 148 146 146 140 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.8 -54.1 -53.8 -53.1 -53.7 -53.2 -53.8 -53.3 -53.5 -53.1 -53.5 -53.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 5 5 4 700-500 MB RH 68 69 68 68 68 69 66 66 63 64 65 66 64 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 8 9 12 12 12 14 15 15 15 15 16 17 850 MB ENV VOR 15 8 3 8 5 -5 4 18 19 26 25 25 26 200 MB DIV 64 90 63 81 103 54 25 10 25 13 21 7 44 700-850 TADV -2 -2 -3 -8 -11 -6 -6 -5 -4 -2 -1 -5 0 LAND (KM) 1132 1178 1229 1275 1327 1429 1496 1619 1759 1872 1980 2075 2171 LAT (DEG N) 10.6 10.7 10.7 10.9 11.0 11.2 11.5 11.5 11.5 11.8 12.3 13.0 13.9 LONG(DEG W) 110.4 111.3 112.1 113.0 113.8 115.6 117.5 119.5 121.5 123.6 125.7 127.6 129.7 STM SPEED (KT) 11 8 8 8 8 9 9 10 10 10 10 11 10 HEAT CONTENT 26 30 30 23 16 17 19 11 8 6 7 6 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 534 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 61.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 7. 15. 22. 29. 33. 35. 38. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -1. -2. -1. 1. 3. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 11. 11. 12. 12. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 5. 5. 9. 11. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 13. 19. 28. 36. 42. 48. 51. 53. 55. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922013 INVEST 08/09/13 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.6 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 130.5 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.2 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 25.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 80.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 49.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 27% is 2.0 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 19% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 13% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922013 INVEST 08/09/13 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##