* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912012 09/14/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 36 40 45 53 61 67 69 65 61 55 49 V (KT) LAND 30 33 36 40 45 53 61 67 69 65 61 55 49 V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 35 38 40 46 52 59 64 64 58 48 38 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 12 12 14 13 9 4 2 6 10 13 14 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -3 -2 -2 -1 0 -3 -5 -2 -1 -1 -3 -1 SHEAR DIR 47 52 41 41 50 8 43 143 204 216 219 224 214 SST (C) 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.6 28.5 27.9 26.7 25.1 23.4 22.1 21.1 POT. INT. (KT) 151 150 149 149 149 148 148 142 130 114 96 81 71 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.3 -52.6 -52.6 -52.4 -53.3 -52.5 -53.1 -52.6 -52.9 -52.9 -53.3 -53.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 4 4 3 2 1 700-500 MB RH 63 63 62 61 64 66 58 57 57 48 50 42 45 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 6 7 7 9 9 10 10 12 11 10 9 8 850 MB ENV VOR 42 46 53 66 74 57 68 68 71 42 48 26 16 200 MB DIV -11 -13 -6 29 57 67 51 34 34 24 26 23 12 700-850 TADV -1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 3 2 0 LAND (KM) 1238 1295 1352 1386 1414 1449 1444 1451 1463 1443 1417 1393 1400 LAT (DEG N) 14.9 14.7 14.5 14.5 14.4 14.5 15.1 16.0 17.3 18.8 20.3 21.6 22.8 LONG(DEG W) 118.2 118.8 119.3 119.7 120.1 120.8 121.5 122.6 123.9 125.2 126.3 127.0 127.8 STM SPEED (KT) 9 6 4 4 4 4 6 8 9 9 8 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 45 49 46 40 34 28 19 12 3 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):250/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ -3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 526 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 70.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 14. 20. 23. 24. 24. 22. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. 5. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 15. 23. 31. 37. 39. 35. 31. 25. 19. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912012 INVEST 09/14/12 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.3 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.4 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 42.8 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.4 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 11.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 60.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 24% is 2.1 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 19% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 14% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 3.9%)