* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902012 09/12/12 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 39 43 48 55 63 67 63 59 48 42 36 V (KT) LAND 30 34 39 43 48 55 63 67 63 59 48 42 36 V (KT) LGE mod 30 33 36 38 41 44 44 42 39 36 33 28 24 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 4 8 11 12 14 17 21 13 14 9 3 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 1 3 2 1 0 -4 -2 0 -3 0 -4 SHEAR DIR 36 47 13 353 346 314 336 312 308 325 335 357 230 SST (C) 29.4 29.3 29.1 28.7 28.3 27.4 26.6 26.0 25.5 24.4 22.5 20.7 19.6 POT. INT. (KT) 158 158 155 151 147 137 129 124 119 107 87 69 61 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.0 -52.5 -51.7 -52.2 -52.1 -52.4 -52.1 -51.9 -51.8 -52.0 -52.0 -51.9 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 9 10 9 8 7 7 6 3 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 81 80 75 75 73 69 62 60 55 55 56 59 59 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 7 11 11 12 13 16 19 18 19 15 15 15 850 MB ENV VOR -10 -18 -20 -16 -10 0 11 15 11 -17 -33 -35 -28 200 MB DIV 62 44 46 90 92 81 54 27 30 15 -27 -6 21 700-850 TADV -3 0 -1 -4 -7 -3 -17 -8 -9 0 5 3 6 LAND (KM) 297 324 340 363 399 455 422 469 514 611 663 782 957 LAT (DEG N) 16.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 105.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 9 9 8 9 11 11 11 10 11 10 HEAT CONTENT 48 41 36 27 15 12 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 599 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 13. 18. 20. 21. 20. 17. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 11. 15. 14. 14. 10. 10. 9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 13. 18. 25. 33. 37. 33. 29. 18. 12. 6. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902012 INVEST 09/12/12 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.7 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.2 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 33.4 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.9 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 66.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 83.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 39% is 3.4 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 27% is 3.5 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 20% is 3.8 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 12% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 3.9%)